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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (6643)	4/9/1999 1:32:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78572

<<I guess since my boat is being floated by this rising tide for now, I'm just a bit optimistic. But are you insinuating that I am doing something contrary to value principles to get my returns this year?>> NO SUCH INSINUATION. WE EACH EXECUTE OUR OWN STRATEGY. YOU'RE DOING SOMETHING VERY RIGHT AND KEEP IT UP. YOUR PORTFOLIO HAS ONE CHARACTERISTIC I ESPECIALLY LOVE. A LARGE PART OF IT IS RELATIVELY UNCORRELATED TO THE US MARKET. AND YOU'VE GOT DIVIDENDS. THAT PORTFOLIO WILL DO BETTER THAN MOST IN A DISASTER. THE WAY I LOOK AT IT THOUGH, IS I AM NOT MANAGING A STOCK PORTFOLIO. I'M MANAGING MY OWN MONEY. SO THERE IS NO RULE THAT I HAVE TO BE INVESTED AT ALL TIMES. A PORTFOLIO LIKE YOURS MAY OUTPERFORM THE MARKET IN A DISASTER, BUT YOU ARE STILL GOING TO LOSE AT LEAST 20% OF IT. THAT'S THE PAGE I'M ON THESE DAYS. <<I think we should be clear that it will take a meltdown for the market to change character. 20% corrections don't do it. Something needs to threaten the mutual funds, threaten the public into withdrawing large sums all at once, threaten them to stop rolling over 100% of their retirment into index funds. No doubt about it - the average investor thinks of an S&P index fund as equivalent to a money market in terms of safety.>> COULDN'T HAVE SAID IT BETTER MYSELF. ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS A BUBBLE IN SEARCH OF A PIN. I DON'T KNOW WHEN ITS GOING TO HAPPEN, BUT I KNOW ITS GOING TO HAPPEN. AND THE MARKET IS TELLING ME THAT SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN SOON. THE DOW IS GOING UP 100 POINTS A DAY WITH A NEGATIVE ADVANCE/DECLINE. THAT'S WHAT MADE ME SELL LAST SUMMER.