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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4364)4/9/1999 9:18:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 15132
 
More on ETEC:

Re: "On October 8th, ETEC closed at 15 13/16. That was the low. One day later, it closed at $20.25; one week later it closed at $27 1/2; two weeks later it closed at $35 3/16."

I should say that my statement should not necessarily be read to suggest that a repeat performance is in the cards to the upside. It could. Probabilities are that it will recover to the mid thirties but perhaps over a longer period of time assuming the business plan is intact. I think the fundamentals are fine. I always try to think in terms of probabilities when investing or trading.

Fundamental research from Lehman:

lehman.com



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4364)4/9/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: Gary D  Respond to of 15132
 
Justa, "If larger cap funds did dump it, they will dump it to smaller cap funds because it is 95% owned by institutions."

If this happens, it's not obvious to me that this would necessarily be very helpful to share price. I assume the small-cap funds have less available $$$ to support share price, even if the small-cap fund managers could become excited about ETEC's fall into the small-cap category. But perhaps this will be a mute point in light of today's action to the upside.

"You are watching a classic beta blast to the downside that can correct itself very quickly to the other direction."

When I read that, my first reaction was to check the time of your post <G> (which was prior to market open). Today's action illustrated your point.



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4364)4/11/1999 12:30:00 PM
From: Lars  Respond to of 15132
 
*** Market Summary ***

4/09/99 4/01/99 %Change

S&P 500 1,348.35 1,293.72 +4.22%
Dow Jones 10,173.84 9,832.51 +3.47%
NASD Comp 2,593.04 2,493.37 +4.00%
Russell 2000 405.86 398.74 +1.79%
SOX Index 410.07 387.37 +5.86%
Value Line 414.32 410.18 +1.01%
MS Growth 562.40 551.61 +1.96%
MS Cyclical 513.10 499.43 +2.74%
T - Bill 4.26% 4.30% -4 BP
Long Bond 5.45% 5.67% -22 BP
Gold - Oz-Near Month $283.20 $281.90 +$1.30
Silver - Oz-Near Month $4.93 $5.03 -$.10

Economic News

*European Central Bank (ECB) Unexpectedly Cut Rates Half Point
Big Change To Try To Jump-Start Economies - Reforms Needed
Financial Markets Love It Though - Goldilocks Lives

*Leading Indicators for February rose +.2% to 107.1

*February Wholesale Inventories rose +.6% - Sales for
February rose +1.0% - Inventory/Sales Ratio eases

*Consumer Credit for February rose +$8.7 billion -
Slowdown from January - Still Big Increase

*Chain Store Sales in March Strong - Easter Skew

*Jobless Claims rose +11,000 to 299,000 - Eleventh
Week Below 300,000 - Four Week Moving Average rose
+1,750 to 295,250 - Still Strong Data

*Producer Price Index rose +.2% in March - As Expected
Core Rate (without volatile food and energy) was
Unchanged for March - Second Month in a row



To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4364)4/11/1999 12:47:00 PM
From: Lars  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15132
 
Justa,

>>>
On October 8th, ETEC closed at 15 13/16. That was the low. One day later, it closed at $20.25; one week later it closed at $27 1/2; two weeks later it closed at $35 3/16.
>>>

Excellent point. Mr. Market works according to his own plan. A "bargain" can last for months or minutes.