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To: accountclosed who wrote (31930)4/9/1999 9:00:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 86076
 
<<what's your take on this hs market? >>
Just that, HS! Of all the thinks I have seen in the last few days, yesterday's Fleck's rap gave some real cud to chew on.

1. GDP growth vs debt growth
Let's back up some of those claims with data from his most recent report. GDP was $8.254 trillion in the fourth-quarter 1997 and $8.680 trillion in the fourth-quarter 1998, meaning nominal growth was $426 billion. Non-financial debt outstanding was $15.178 trillion at the end of Q4 1997, and $16.12 trillion at the end of Q4 '98, for growth of $951 billion. Financial debt was $5.453 trillion at the end of Q4 '97 and $6.569 trillion at the end of Q4 '98, for growth of $1.116 trillion. So together, non-financial and financial institution debt grew by $2.067 trillion. And that's how much debt was necessary to create an increase in GDP of $426 billion.

As Carl says, "That's right. Almost $5 of debt creation was necessary to generate $1 GDP. Do you see anyone concerned about the credit risk and bankruptcy potential in the next recession?


2. the sentiment poll.
Don't worry, be happy... Ed Hyman was wondering if there was too much complacency, so he did a survey. He polled institutional investors and asked if Kosovo would be negative for markets, and 100 percent said no. When asked if Y2K would be negative for markets, 100 percent said no, and when asked if there would be a financial crisis this year, 85 percent said no. So there you go. Everyone thinks that nothing possibly could go wrong.

IMO, these two speak volumes! Recently I was having my own doubts about the vertical decline scenario. Not any more. My take on the market is that don't ever spend a night without OTM puts on some POS shares. It is worth re-filling the putfolio up to October cycle.