To: stock bull who wrote (115554 ) 4/9/1999 12:24:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Stock Bull...I guess it all depends what your expectation is...remember, Dell is now at 42, not 75 or 90....a 2 point move at 42= a 4 point move at 84.... Look, we all know (at least most of us) that Dell is not going to return 200% a year this year, or next. That almost (inherently) means that there will be less 2,3,4 point run-ups....but, despite the disappointment last quarter, Dell stock (so far this quarter) has reacted pretty much like it reacts every quarter...Sure, the before/after earnings drop in Dell was greater than in many quarters, but it is/was an expected phenomena...The weakness in the stock the first 6 weeks of this quarter is a normal occurence....We had a really, surprisely strong (I would say) run the past week...On February 18, if you would have told most posters that Dell would be at 46/47 the day of the analyst meeting...I think most folks would have viewed that very positively.... Let's see how this plays out. If pattern holds, we will see a stair-step jump up over the next few weeks. Intel will probably help, get things going again next week.....Even (while) it may be true that some big money is waiting for 1Q results, the stock will probably rise on the backs of small investors who gladly buy quality. Just think, if 1Q exceeds expectations, does that mean that some big money will come in after earnings, and cushion the after-earnings fall? Could happen... IMO, Dell will probably not take out the old high before earnings, but just getting to 50-55 before the next earnings would be a success, given the incredible gloom-and-doom that the press has pounded Dell with in the past weeks... Growth has slowed, but this story is not over. This is simply too good a company. The stock's rise will continue to reflect that.