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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Alohal who wrote (115573)4/9/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: John  Respond to of 176387
 
Alohal wrote:

> Has anybody noticed that a difference of just $0.01 this Q pushes
> eps growth above 50%. After the reaction to last Q. rev. growth
> of 38% and earnings growth below 50% I think it's pretty safe to
> assume management will pull out all the stops to beat the estimates
> by enough to show 50% again.

I am long term on Dell, so I'm not worried about this. When all is said and done, this stock will excel. I plan on holding my Dell shares and accumulating as much as possible during the next 6 or 7 years. If I end up earning just 15 to 20% per annum (adjusted), I will be content. I truly believe it will be much more than that when all is said and done though.

Although I am very bullish on Dell, I don't mind saying that this unrealistic expectation worries me in the short term. Yeah, I'm in this stock long term, but I still don't like to see my stock taking unwarranted hits time and time again, week after week.

I liken this unrealistic "50% expectation" to telling a world class marathon runner, "if you don't win each 30K race by at least 5K, you're finished as a runner." If McGwire had failed to break Roger Maris' record last year, he would have been considered a failure and labeled a failure by the media. It's just nuts. Everything seems so extreme these days. Will some degree of normalcy ever return to the market? Or is what we're experiencing the new "normal?" Should we break our old paradigms and start investing based on the emotional
cycles of novice investors who expect a 100% return on investments every 6 months? Damnit, it's not enough for a company to show profits anymore. If you're not recognized by the street as an INTERNUT, your stock is crap, or so "they" would have us believe.

These damn analysts and "the street," and the bookies (market makers) are playing a game. They're keeping their mouths shut about Dell while they quietly suck up shares like crazy. You know damned well they're doing this!!! If Dell beats the numbers when their earnings are announced, you're going to witness a lot of these people jumping on the bandwagon, and pretending they've foreseen this all along.

The ANALysts make statements so shrouded in ambiguity, that they conveniently leave themselves the latitude to say almost anything that bolsters their own reputation in the end, regardless of the outcome. Classic bombast and doublespeak. Mark my words. You'll see almost ALL of these jerks acting like they've been hard core Dell proponents all along, while taking credit for "calling it right." So, for now, I'd just play the game. Buy like crazy RIGHT NOW, because I assure you, all of the analysts, CNBC announcers (hehe), and bookies are doing just that. It's just the way things work. Play their game, and win.

Sorry for ranting.

Ciao,
John