Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyC who wrote (3337)	4/10/1999 11:39:00 AM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3736

RockyC, With all due respect, I am confused by your posting. Do you work or own shares in AMAT? Everything stated on this thread is well known in the semiconductor industry and the community at large. SFAM-IPEC has a well established supply base (see INTC, MOT, Seimens, AMD, Micron) and while there is a transition to Cu taking place, this has led only to evals by some semi players over the past two years. Eval wins do NOT be definition led to volume production orders? Unless I missed something while out on vacation or the industry has changed, what large production volume wins has AMAT announced recently? Furthermore, do you really believe that Intel, TI, Micron, NSC, AMD, Samsung et al. are all going to allow AMAT to become an even larger gorilla in the way Microsoft has become in the software industry? NVLS exist because they make competitive tools, and because the industry wants an alternative to AMAT. SFAM-IPEC, moreover, does NOT have to get 50% of the market (or 50% of eval wins at this juncture) to become profitable and an appreciable stock. What is the basis to your statement that SFAM-IPEC's tools are not competitive? With respect to Cu, the issue of slurry and platen are relevant over the short term - particularly with respect to SFAM's offerings as opposed to IPEC's I believe - but even then these are NOT make or break issues with respect to the true ramp up for Cu. Large volume production orders for copper are not coming tomorrow contrary to AMAT's PR machine. These are the orders that truly matter. You state "AMAT has won >60% of the recent wave of Korean orders, probably more like 75% of them." Maybe I missed this, or was on vacation, or AMAT's PR machine decided to give everyone else a break, but who/what/where/how many tools? WHat kind of orders? How about Samsung? You also state "The Auriga is not superior for anything if you look at the order rate in the industry right now." Maybe I am not understanding you here, but why would you measure superiority in a down cycle by order against AMAT the Gorilla who has been giving its CMP tools away as part of package deals? The entire semiconductor equipment sector, let alone order for CMP tools, have only started to rebound and as far as I know. To date, I am unaware of any large production volume orders have been proffered with tight delivery schedules. So, with all due respect, what are you are referring to here? I apologize if I am missing something but I haven't found a sufficient evidence to date to support you general conclusion of SFAM-IPEC's death and dismemberment (:~)), but welcome and be much appreciative for information to the contrary citing chapter and verse. Looking forward to your response.....SemiBull Big Long on SFAM (and a smaller long on AMAT)

To: RockyC who wrote (3337)	4/20/1999 10:02:00 PM
From: Mr. Sam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3736

Rocky, we agree about a lot more than we disagree about. The market share picture that I see is very similar to the one you describe. That is, AMAT is winning most of the tool selection competitions that have happened in the last 6 months or so. I agree with your assessment that AMAT will probably win most of the tool orders placed in 1999. Where we differ is in our assessments of the reasons for AMAT's strength at the expense of SFAM. I contend that SpeedFam's strengths are the following: --superior throughput --superior cost of ownership --process capability sufficient for most ILD oxide, tungsten plug, poly, and traditional STI polishing --well-characterized and adequate reliability --lots of manufacturing capacity --good scrubber integration SpeedFam's weaknesses are the following: --limited demonstrated ability to polish and clean copper in the most difficult applications --no 300 mm tool released AMAT's strengths are the following: --excellent marketing and leveraging of dominance in other segments of semiconductor equipment industry --superior endpoint --superior polishing head --process flexibility to support multiple-slurry copper polishing strategies --300 mm tool is further along --lots of manufacturing capacity --lots of bodies in field support, though they have very limited polish experience and have a high mean time to repair --global reach of field support, marketing, spare parts, etc., is second to none AMAT's weaknesses are the following: --high cost of ownership --Titan head and endpoint, though superior to SFAM's, do not live up to the promises and hype --more immature platform with associated reliability issues --crummy scrubber integration I think that you would agree with most of these points. Your comment that "The Auriga is not superior for anything if you look at the order rate in the industry right now" simplifies things a bit, so I can't tell for sure. Regarding copper, you state that <<SFAM has no tool. Not because of flexibility but because the tool plain doesn't work. IPEC's is the most competitive on copper next to the AMAT and Lam tool. >> I am certain that the Auriga-C has the capability to polish copper, though you're right that they haven't won (to my knowledge) any volume orders for copper applications. I stand by my statement that the additional platens on the Mirra compared to the Auriga-C is a key reason for some of the head-to-head results. As the consumables for copper mature, this advantage will diminish as some companies attempt to get comparable process results, lower cost, and higher throughput by getting by with a single step copper/barrier metal polish. That's all I have time for now. Best wishes and profitable investing, Mr. Sam (For full disclosure, I have 8% of my money in SFAM stock and 3% in AMAT stock.)