To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (5728 ) 4/10/1999 10:56:00 AM From: Slick Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10852
A voice from beyond the grave: Remember me? That nagging little voice from last year telling you: "sell! sell! sell!" at the top (around June '98 when you guys hoped for LOR hitting 40)? That was when I got out and took my fat profit. Leaving behind the stocks of the "old bull market" ('95-'98) and instead focusing on the "new" (read: INTERNET STOCKS! Heard of 'em?). Well I can't stand idly by anymore and not share my talent for prescient visions of DOOM: I predict a blood-bath in LOR over the next few months. Q:Based on what? A:Based on fact! The satellite phone industry in its current incarnation will collapse of its own debt-heavy weight. Iridium won a hollow victory against LOR: beat LOR as first to mass-market with phones and service and brand-name recognition now established. But one little problem: cellular service got too good and too cheap for anyone to care! Anyone with any money, that is, or with high-volume telecomm needs. Cellphones are getting better, smaller, cheaper, with national one-rate coverage and inroads into international coverage. Given a choice between $7/min or $0.10/min is a no-brainer! LOR and IRIDF did not expect that telcos in foreign countries, particularly in west Europe and far East would wire their countries so darn fast! And now to boot these companies are melding into multinationals giving better service, lowering prices, and providing compatibility and offering deluxe telephony services at very little cost. Adieu to the LOR vision of wiring the bushmen of the Kalahari, the yurts in the Gobi desert, the monks of Bhuttan (who have a vow of silence, incidentally) and yes even the tribesman of Papua New Guinea. The idea was not visionary but rather hallucinatory.