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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (17725)	4/10/1999 8:16:00 AM
From: Mark Ivan	Respond to of 18056

Bosco, I don't believe CPQ is a bellweather like DELL or INTC. But it should affect the market Monday, at least. I have seen others a couple months ago predict the PC sales slump, the warning, etc for Spring/Summer season. Maybe this is just the beginning. We should see the press jump on this, esp. if others start warning. Hopefully, when the press is in full form "gloom and doom" on the PC industry, it should be time to jump back in. I think that Y2K will cause some problems somehow here also. Didn't get to see much of the perienneal Bulls on Louis Rukeyser last night. My wife turn off the VCR just as Louis was getting into the CPQ warning. The only thing that makes me think we won't get a big correction is some of the PUT/CALL ratios. It does not seem like we are in over-exurberant market. I think more than a few are prediciting a correction. About 1/2 month ago, I predicted we would break 10000 and then people would recklessly plow money into the market to take up to 10250 intra-day. Then we drop. Maybe Thurday was that day. With the european interest rate cuts, low inflation, people did start plowing it back in. But with PC sales slowing, oil creeping up, Y2k fears, high valuations, narrow market, I think we have to go down. To sum up, the market has always tanked whenever I got this sense of calm that it was safe to invest a bunch of money in it. Right now I have feelings of gloom, which probably means the market will continue to go up. When I finally tell myself "That's it Mark, this market just keeps going up. Throw all your money back in..." That's when we may be at the top. Mark