To: Hawaii60 who wrote (4411 ) 4/10/1999 6:38:00 AM From: Crossy Respond to of 30916
Hawaii & all, well I'm finally glad that I got into IDTC. However I made a small mistake when entering back then. I just posted a nice gain when EGGS screamed ahead and shifted the funds into IDTC. However I didn'Trealize that quarterly earnings were out same day. Next day, IDTC plunged from $20 to 17. If I had just waited for 3-4 days I'd have entered at $15-16 range instead of at $20. Now that the Net2Phone value is being unlocked, I wonder how much revenue the 1,25 million subcribers had been generating for IDTC in the past in order to assess the standalone valuation of IDTC. Last year, the company posted $500 million in revenues. Right now, using the current quarterly figure with no growth factor attached, we arrive at $640 million. Let's say the difference in revenues between the last 2-3 quarters are just attributable to Net2Phone, then we arrive at current implied annual revenues for Net2Phone at approximately $100-150 million USD. That means that the rest of IDTC is still good for $500 million in annual revenues. In such situations, IDTC could become a nice arbitrage play. My scenario is this: Net2Phone IPO will do exceptionally good. We get out shares in Net2Phone. After Price to Sales ratio above 10 I will sell my Net2Phone shares but keep my IDTC shares. Reason ? The parent often sells at a huge discount, unless the street fully takes notice (look what happened to UIHIA and UPCOY after spinoff). Then after a while IDTC stocks should storm ahead to reflect the ownership of 60-70% of NEt2Phone in its stock valuation.. This is how I will play out this scenario. Any comments welcome.. best regards CROSSY