To: Tom Hua who wrote (634 ) 4/10/1999 1:01:00 AM From: Scott Bergquist Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1305
Tom, your confidence on your short at 30 left me tentative about joining Friday's upward move, but I got in anyway (late) and made some good $$$ (now out. Never count "unsold" as profit). However, I caution you to look through the very, very well reasoned, cogent arguments made right here on SI last Sept/Oct as to why Amazon (AMZN) would -never- revisit 140, it was 100 down to 82-90, and it was just a matter of time before 15-16-17 was the "proper" price. Hell, I had Oct 115 puts; some people had March 1999 100 puts and were deriding the LEAPS issued for 140 calls. Dead Money!! Amazon still has a widening gulf between expenses and revenue, and the stock price is FIVE TIMES what it was in October. One Chinese gent on Yahoo! had shorted many thousand shares at 90, and was out looking for a new Mercedes! I have shorted many stocks, and I favor buying puts over calls. But I have lost money on every "short position" on every internet stock. Especially with these small-float guys, the MMs salivate at squeezing shorts. You may be staring at another Inktomi, thinking it is another BAMM. Hopefully you played Network Solutions' run from 200 to 300, and back to (split) 108. But I don't know if I accept your methodology of "adding" to a short position, even while it is going up, especially this much! You're trying to put a good face on a "wrong-way" position. HIndsight, of course, but you should have covered your 30 at 34, when the breakout was obvious (that is when I knew it had power to go higher..36, I thought!) No matter how you try to spin it, to let a position sink to a value of less than 20% of the original purchase is untenable: I know, I did with Amazon puts, and many did it with "short" sales of Amazon. This stock market environment, with online trading, is a different environment than two years ago: YOU CAN BE EATEN! Good Luck!