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To: Jeff Chan who wrote (1622)4/10/1999 12:50:00 PM
From: Mark Bartlett  Respond to of 14101
 
Jeff,

No doubt that we may be forming the right shoulder of an H&S pattern ... but I do not share the same conclusion ... according to Martin Pring in Technical Analysis Explained ..... paraphrased "H&S and reverse H&S patterns, even if the neckline is breached for short periods of time, are often followed by explosive rallies, when the fundamentals of the stock are more fully appreciated."

Lets hope he's right.

MB



To: Jeff Chan who wrote (1622)4/10/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: Montana Wildhack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Four months ago I talked to my doctor about Pennsaid.
He hadn't heard of it, but knew about COX2 Inhibitors.
His practise is in a large medical facility in Toronto.
I spent 6 years in the SmithKline Beckman organization
partly in marketing. It wasn't suprising that my
doctor hadn't heard of Pennsaid. The money, time,
colour brochures, and free samples spent on doctors
was incredible in my experience. Dimethaid has
neither the funds nor infrastructure to carry this
off. Yet so much of this market is peer group.

Peter Block recently answered my question, "how many
of the 3,000 patients repeated the prescription?"
My understanding is the answer was 'not that many'.
I can see that $60 a pop is a lot not to get back on
a drug plan, but, I would like to know how many
doctors thought the Pennsaid experiment was effective.
I fully agree with your desire to have more data
and am trying to determine market perception from
the little information we have. I'm pursuing this.

Overiding all this for me is the fact that Pennsaid
has already been proven to be statistically effective
and would save material health care dollars versus
the costs associated with the side affects of oral
NSAID's.

How much market do we need?

I'm trying to project revenues. I hope you won't
mind my sharing an example.

1. Assume FDA approval and a major drug JV.
2. Assume the JV partner has existing salve
manufacturing facilities to produce Pennsaid.
3. Assume a deal at 30% for Dimethaid after
direct costs (12%) and marketing costs (18%).
4. Assume 39M shares, 15M in DMX costs, no taxes 1st
year, a 15 multiple, and a $15 share price.

Revenue required is: $170 million US. (Happy to
send detail if wanted).

Do I think Pennsaid will sell 170M in the current
US market? Yes. This is just one scenario, but,
they all point to low market penetration equalling
high share price.

Please pardon my windbagness. I don't get out much.



To: Jeff Chan who wrote (1622)4/10/1999 6:16:00 PM
From: jef saunders  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
does anyone have more info on the man with liver cancer at the
annual meeting? i'd like to speak or write to him.

my friend has a 2.5 cm x 5.0 cm growth in her left lung, and
3 spots where it apparantly has matasticized in her liver.
i sent an email to the wf10 person at dimethaid, and got an
immediate response. he was very helpful. she would have to be referred by a canadian doctor. so i might be looking for
one of them.

also, does anyone know of any other experimental drugs that
shrink tumors ? i've heard they are out there, but i don't
know where.

p.s. i hope the price goes lower. i want to buy more cheaper!




To: Jeff Chan who wrote (1622)4/11/1999 11:19:00 AM
From: ogod  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
you ve identified the problem, this is technically a breakdown, which only positive news can hold up,the 3 range was critical, really what the stock needs to do now is look for a new support level, probably back to the 2.40-2.60 range,