To: Jeff Chan who wrote (1622 ) 4/10/1999 2:28:00 PM From: Montana Wildhack Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
Four months ago I talked to my doctor about Pennsaid. He hadn't heard of it, but knew about COX2 Inhibitors. His practise is in a large medical facility in Toronto. I spent 6 years in the SmithKline Beckman organization partly in marketing. It wasn't suprising that my doctor hadn't heard of Pennsaid. The money, time, colour brochures, and free samples spent on doctors was incredible in my experience. Dimethaid has neither the funds nor infrastructure to carry this off. Yet so much of this market is peer group. Peter Block recently answered my question, "how many of the 3,000 patients repeated the prescription?" My understanding is the answer was 'not that many'. I can see that $60 a pop is a lot not to get back on a drug plan, but, I would like to know how many doctors thought the Pennsaid experiment was effective. I fully agree with your desire to have more data and am trying to determine market perception from the little information we have. I'm pursuing this. Overiding all this for me is the fact that Pennsaid has already been proven to be statistically effective and would save material health care dollars versus the costs associated with the side affects of oral NSAID's. How much market do we need? I'm trying to project revenues. I hope you won't mind my sharing an example. 1. Assume FDA approval and a major drug JV. 2. Assume the JV partner has existing salve manufacturing facilities to produce Pennsaid. 3. Assume a deal at 30% for Dimethaid after direct costs (12%) and marketing costs (18%). 4. Assume 39M shares, 15M in DMX costs, no taxes 1st year, a 15 multiple, and a $15 share price. Revenue required is: $170 million US. (Happy to send detail if wanted). Do I think Pennsaid will sell 170M in the current US market? Yes. This is just one scenario, but, they all point to low market penetration equalling high share price. Please pardon my windbagness. I don't get out much.