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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ron Bower who wrote (8470)	4/10/1999 4:49:00 PM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

G'day all - as most of the regulars here know, I ve mixed feelings about the current Chinese govt regime. My mixed emotions not withstanding, I am surprised to find the reaction on the WTO decision, which I thought it was a foregone conclusion even before Premier Zhu left for the US. AFA the US political scene is concerned, the ritual is for the President to figure a way to accommodate and for the opposition in Congress to criticize. So happen that both sides of Congress seem to find opposing the deal is a good clean political move this time around. Having said that, my feeling is that the inclusion, with some on probation scheme, serves the benefits of all better for the long haul. On a separate note, but still related to Premier Zhu's visit, I am a bit disappointed in the interview on the News Hour last night. pbs.org Actually, while Zhu's performance was marginal [but then, not many politicans elsewhere are used to the grueling schedule of a whirlwind tour!] my disappointment was more of Mr Lehrer's probing. Maybe he decided to back off a little to preserve the goodwill [I certainly do not wish Zhu be interogated in Sam Donaldson fashion <G>] best, Bosco

To: Ron Bower who wrote (8470)	4/16/1999 6:14:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Thread: Japan may report positive growth for the first quarter. (This can & should be considered a lame attempt to stimulate posts on the now-slumbering Asia Forum Thread). Due to the speculative runup in the Nikkei upon announcements of retructurings by Japanese blue chips, I have decided to long Japan for the first time. The decision stems not directly from the restructurings, but rather indirectly. We were all astounded by our 6% growth figure in the 4th quarter. No one was expecting greater than 2.5%. So where did the huge gain come from? I'm betting that it came from the sharp rise in stock prices over the 4th quarter, specifically from the over 80% rise in the Nasdaq 100. Companies with rising share prices appear healthier to lending institutions, which often become carefree with credit lines to high flying stocks - allowing the companies to borrow at favorable rates. Also, the higher share prices lead to increased meregrs & acquisitions, obviously, enabling a company with little equity & assets, like Yahoo, to pay billions for another company with little equity & assets, like GeoCities. The market's gains also lead to greater consumer spending, hence the low savings rate. Now, with the Nikkei OTC small cap sector having a spectacular rally, and now the Nikkei blue chips rising impressively, plus the expanded money supply by the BoJ, I beleive that the same fundamentals are in place for a surprising growth figure. If I estimate that 3% of the 6% growth figure was directly tied to the market's ascent here, then I may place a figure such as 2% on the Nikkei rally, and maybe a 1/2% on the cut of interest rates to near-zero..... Most forecasts, including Goldman Sachs', call for negative growth of about 1/2 a percent for the next results. I'm betting on 1% POSITIVE GROWTH, which will give the Nikkei another jolt higher to strong resistance at 20,000 Financial mkt moves supporting Japan economy--BOJ TOKYO, April 13 (Reuters) - Recent movements in Japanese financial and capital markets are supporting the economy, a government official quoted Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Masaru Hayami as saying on Tuesday. ''Financial and capital markets are moving in a direction that is supporting the economy overall, and this favourable development is continuing,'' Hayami was quoted by an official of the Economic Planning Agency (EPA) as telling a meeting of economic ministers. Referring to recent increases in bank lending, Hayami was quoted as saying, ''We hope that the improved environment will gradually have positive effects on the economy, but we will continue carefully monitoring the situation.'' --------------------------------------------------------------------------------