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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robbie who wrote (56718)	4/10/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

You guys may want to read this post: exchange2000.com CTC

To: robbie who wrote (56718)	4/10/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

robbie - 2 years ago, 60% of my portfolio was in CPQ. Today, that number is about 35%. The difference is primarily due to the performance of the other components of my investments - MSFT, LU CSCO, DELL, INTC. As we all know, a bank CD would have been a better investment than CPQ over the last 2 years. I believe that there will be a new paradigm in the next 5 to 10 years for vendors who provide IT infrastructure. Proprietary systems like IBM's AS400 and S390, Tandem Himalaya and the DEC VAX line will be replaced by more capable systems running either Unix or NT and built from volume components. The inevitable cost savings will drive the switch. This will require a complete infrastructure, services led, in which the hardware and software components which are the mainstay of classic CPQ, DELL and the other box vendors will represent at most 20% of the pie. This trend is very clear and in my mind inevitable. Of the major players, the only companies who grasped this fact and took aggressive action to change direction are Sun and CPQ. Sun is coming from behind to make a great play in this space. I had been of the opinion that because of the idiosyncratic behavior of Scott McNealy that Sun would get tangled up in its underwear but they have executed very well. I am beginning to develop the opinion that McNealy's public posture is mostly an act and that his real agenda is well thought out. There is no other way to explain Sun's strength in the marketplace. CPQ has brought all of the right pieces together. They clearly understand where they need to go. But their execution on turning the ship around has been terrible. I believe that this is a failure of CPQ management to take the hard steps. This would be a great story if they set the right expectations on the street, and then delivered on the vision. Instead they want it all - good near term performance while doing a heart and lung replacement on the company. If they don't get dynamic leadership in place who can pull the program together and get focused, the whole thing could fall apart of its own weight. I would be much happier if they set a clear and accurate roadmap for the next 6 to 9 months which achieved that position, no matter how ugly the near term picture.