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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lynn who wrote (56739)	4/10/1999 3:57:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Lynn...I think by Tuesday (Intel reporting) there will be much more evidence of how the sector is really doing.....Compaq's problems are largely Compaq-specific: (Likely 4th Quarter Inventory Overhang, Overly Optimistic Projection for Q1, Dell's more price-aggressive attitude in Q1; Compaq not responding well/Caught off-guard, and PII to PIII transition, and transition from indirect to direct not going well).. Demand for the quarter (overall, industy) might be a bit light, but is likely close to normal unit growth for a Q1....This will be clear soon... Monday morning will be ugly, but I think you will see buying in Dell/Gateway in the afternoon..Don't know about CPQ... Remember, the market (especially traders) have a short memory...Fast forward to late April/May...what if Compaq comes out forecasting stronger Q2, Dell does well, Reports from IDC/Dataquest are good...money will flow back into the sector..many not to past levels, but will flow nonetheless.... After all, I don't know a lot of folks who thought Dell would hit 48 again before the recent analyst meeting...it came back pretty quick, IMO...thanks to CPQ, its gonna have to do it once again...