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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Loring who wrote (26608)	4/10/1999 11:50:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42771

Loring, I think the NDS lead in the industry and the industry's recent understanding of the value of Directory Services as a critical evolution of networked computing is the major factor that will continue to move NOVL's price forward. In fact, every time NOVL releases/delivers another product that leverages NDS and every time they announce another partner that signs on to NDS the price should strengthen. I think that NOVL's largest boost will be when MSFT finally releases Active Directory. There will be no hiding the weak product that MSFt will have to show the world and at that time NOVL can demonstrate very clear and undisputed examples of which DS is the most mature, flexable, scaleable, open, and fully featured. I have even heard a couple NOVL staff say that their biggest marketing bonanza will be when MSFT ever releases Active Directory. Its not hard to understand why. Since NOVL is still a fundamentals-based stock, its earnings will also be a major factor on the direction of the stock. This will continue until NOVL generates some real pure Internet excitement by an early deployment of an Internet Service Portal that is based on Digital-Me. This would be something that Wall Street would get real excited about. I agree with many on this board that NOVL should create a new division that has a clear focus to promote, develop, deploy, and market NOVL's NDS and NDS-enabled products for the Internet market. This group should be called the Internet Solutions Division. It would be this division that would take on the Digital-Me, I-Chain, and other Internet oriented technologies. They would establish a Service Portal that uses these products (although they would also market the technology for Corp. use and to other ISPs to expand the NOVL product lines). They would identify and develop extensions to NDS and other NOVL products to meet the needs of ISPs. This new division is a MUST to address the restrictions that are currently not allowing NOVL management to move at "Internet Speeds" on these new Internet and e-commerce solutions. I think there are too many philisophical debates going on in Senior Management regarding what to do with Internet product development & deployment and how far to expand the scope of their currently defined FOCUS. Some of the Senior Managers might call this FOCUS expansion ad FOCUS proliferation and therefor they fear touching the current NOVL FOCUS. Just my opinions. Toy

To: Loring who wrote (26608)	4/12/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: PJ Strifas	Respond to of 42771

Directories are the next great battleground. The OS market has sort of hit a plateau with numbers. I don't see much movement from current deployments since MSFT is holding many people in check waiting for Windows 2000. After that ships, things go back into play and things can change. Now that MSFT has made the move into the directory space, the battle will center around who's directory is "better". Right now NDS has a HUGE lead. MSFT will market their product by the new market share it will gain once Windows 2000 ships. Since they currently don't have a directory product their market share is 0%. Once they begin to ship their directory-enabled product their share will grow faster than NDS initially as those early adopters create a new market for MSFT. This new marketing hype will be all smoke and mirrors because once you get down to it, the NDS lead will still be huge. MSFT is hoping they can convert their installed base into their directory o So it's a hard argument to make at this point since NOVL's directory lead is something that MSFT will bang at with everything they have. The only caveat to their "traditional" marketing hype is that for every sentence they use to tout Active Directory, they are in essence touting NDS too. This is my opinion. Sure MSFT will do it's best to say Active Directory does this better or that easier but in the end, they are making a case for directories which will cause people to "look" at NDS if they haven't already. Once companies take the "taste test" they have to see that NDS is clearly the better product. Then again, some companies don't buy the "best" product but one that fits their needs. This is where MSFT will target their marketing and say that they are suceeding where in reality they aren't. I think NDS will hold it's own in this space (if not grow). I don't see anyone leaving NDS for Active Directory. There's no argument out there that could convince me that Active Directory will add more than NDS does right now or in the near future. When that begins to become clear, Wall Street will reward Novell with increased attention. This will only cause the stock to grow in price. As revenues continue to grow, we will see the stock price inch it's way upward. At some point, Novell's products (and services) will move the perception of traders and investors that this company is really about internetworking and that will be the message that will boost Novell into the "internet play" we hope it will be. Peter J Strifas