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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (56788)	4/10/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

jim: this is what you actually said two days ago, the day before COMPAQ stated that it will miss its numbers. You said the same things with different word on previous occasions. So - 4Q you were 55% too low. 1Q you were 55% too high (if 15 cents proves to be the number) I think you need one of those companion F15 with a laser barrel to help you find the target. ___________________________________________________ To: +gene piccoli (56126 ) From: +jim kelley Thursday, Apr 8 1999 10:17PM ET Reply # of 56795 Gene, The problem with CPQ is that it has lost its focii. Thus, I can see that they may make their number this quarter through various means that we are all now familiar with. But the quality of their earnings has been deteriorating. I expect that the deterioration will continue throughout the year. ________________________________________ This is what you said one of those earlier occasions: ______________________ Steven N (53046 ) From: jim kelley Friday, Mar 12 1999 3:27PM ET Reply # of 53961 You took it wrong then because I was serious. My calculations based on the IDC forecast indicates that CPQ can do 31 cents per share this quarter. Thus they can easily meet the 33 cents per share estimate. The present value of the stock is about 30-33 dollars per share. Nothing sarcastic in this message. _________________________________________________________

To: jim kelley who wrote (56788)	4/10/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: rudedog	Respond to of 97611

Jim - As you can see from victor's response to your post, and your own posts as quoted, I misrepresented nothing. You said that CPQ could comfortably make their numbers by stuffing the channel. They did neither. Your estimate of CPQ earnings was 37 cents which of course means you were off by 150% this quarter If you check back for the last few quarters, I have an absolutely terrible record in predicting earnings. These are dartboard guesses. I have little financial background and make no claim as a predictor of financial performance. It is all I can do to follow the arguments of Chuz and others who actually do know how to read the numbers. It looks like you bit the big one this time with your CPQ position. Perhaps, you can make up some of your losses with your DELL position. The last few months it has been CSCO, MSFT, LU and INTC who have been keeping me off the aqualung. If I pick November as an arbitrary starting point, I have gained about 6 points on DELL, lost about 3 points on CPQ, gained about 40 points on MSFT, gained about 30 points on INTC and gained about 45 points on CSCO and a mere 22 points on LU. Based on that period, both DELL and CPQ are dogs and I should have unloaded both back in November. But every dog has its day and I am comfortable with my current holdings. Even with the sorry performance of CPQ and DELL over the last 4 months I am still up about 60% overall for that period so I'm not lining up for the soup kitchen just yet, but thanks for your concern. Not too good for a guy that claims to have so many inside connections to CPQ executives Jim, you are the guy who claims I have inside connections, not me. Most of my highly placed friends left CPQ years ago. Some of them are now at DELL. I still have a lot of social contact with people who work at CPQ but I would not rate any of them as executives. I find it interesting that you herald Kumar prediction but still claim that CPQ did not stuff its channels in Q4. Why? because Kumar cites this as the principal reason for his 20 cent estimate. Its looks like he was only off by 33% this quarter. Kumar is a ballsy guy who has a good gut feel IMHO but his reasoning is not very sound. He has hit pretty close on some very difficult calls, but as we know from his analysis of DELL, the reasons for those calls have little to do with reality. Still, in his game, the headline is what counts. Maybe he gets his advice from a ouija board. Whatever the source, he tagged this one. There may be some evidence of channel mismanagement but there is just no case for stuffing. I have not found a single credible analysis that supports that position. Rumors and innuendo from a disgruntled channel are not the same as solid facts.