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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (55516)	4/10/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 132070

Do you think that Dell, as a company, is worth as much as General Motors and the Ford Motor Company put together? If you had a choice, and could either own Dell or own both of those other two companies, which would you choose? Which would be more likely to retain its value, and less likely to be damaged by competition? At my own kitchen table, with a screwdriver and a pair of pliers I could duplicate what Dell sells, by ordering the constituent parts. No, please don't suggest that I think I could do it as cheaply as Dell can, and I don't have a distribution network. But I could assemble the parts. Please don't imagine that I am saying I could manufacture the parts, but I could put them together. Indeed, much of the innards of my present office computer are additions and upgrades that I installed myself. In comparison with hooking up computer components, doing something simple to an automobile, such as resurfacing the front disk rotors, is a task of daunting complexity. I would find it much harder and much more expensive to try to build a Taurus in my own back yard. I would need more than a screwdriver and a pair of pliers, also. Dell stock is quite overvalued, and the company is wide open to competition. The heavy insider sales of Dell stock are a way of taking advantage of ignorant speculators.

To: jim kelley who wrote (55516)	4/11/1999 3:34:00 AM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

I'd estimate Dell stock worth around twenty ($20). I've bet the Dell thread that five-year EPS growth will not exceed 20%. Can you quantify your estimates? Local threadster Earlie challenged a Dell bull once (#reply-8196899); perhaps you can answer. I own August puts, which I purchased with part of the profits I made putting Dell earlier this year (check Dell thread). Specious? My predictions above stand a chance of being wrong, but what is questionable about Dell may yet take share, and may retain a premium valuation, but a premium to falling valuations still means a falling stock price? If the PC market rolls over and valuations across the sector come down, say by 50%, then Dell will come down, too. -mb