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To: Earlie who wrote (32399)	4/11/1999 12:18:00 AM
From: James W. Riley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Has this been posted ? smh.com.au US InterNet stocks at $4.1 trillion in Market Value smh.com.au Saturday, April 10, 1999 By STEPHEN DABKOWSKI in Melbourne US broking giant Morgan Stanley has suggested that as of this week, the combined market capitalisation of US Internet-related stocks is $US2.6 trillion ($4.1 trillion) - about equal to the value of the Japanese sharemarket - underscoring the speculative bubble now emerging. Mr Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's chief analyst, came up with the estimate by combining the values of the 50 companies traded on the American Exchange Internet Index and adding that to the biggest Internet-related companies, such as Microsoft, Intel and IBM, as well as the value of telecom and cable TV companies boosted by the Internet frenzy, such as AT&T, MCI WorldCom and Time Warner. "It turns out that our $US2.6 trillion estimate of the market capitalisation of the Internet play amounts to about 20 per cent of the roughly $US13 trillion value of the entire US stock market," he said. "I seem to remember the stories of last Christmas ... maintaining that e-commerce accounted for less than 1 per cent of total retail sales in the US. That $US2.6 trillion figure is looking bigger all the time." Morgan Stanley is not the only US broking house feeling queasy about the Dow's exceeding 10,000 points on the back of an Internet boom. Merrill Lynch's chief market analyst, Mr Richard McCabe, says a "spring correction is at hand. We think that such a correction could have the scope of 15 to 20 per cent. It will take some time for momentum indicators to become fully oversold and for sentiment measures to reverse their recent complacency about downside risk," he said. "In our view, it would probably be followed by a broad-based and consistent bull-market cycle ... that could carry into the 2000-01 period."

To: Earlie who wrote (32399)	4/11/1999 12:42:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Fun w/ Entrails.... ( I neglected to post this on Fri) RECIPE FOR A CRASH! First.. observe our tech leader has broken below support and is now in official crash status.... (note it broke in Jan when the A/D line topped out.. ) 207.95.154.130 Our large cap leading indicator continues on CRASH status.... 207.95.154.130 watch where she stops to extrapolate where the broader mkt will stop its bomb... my guess is around a P/E of 15 so MO should go to around 10. Note how G crashed from the peak.. I expect us to see something similar in the indexes, but the boucne after that G got a 50 should only be an intr-day bounce compared w/ G's 2-day bouncer in its crash (things will acclerate as the panic starts.. moves should be compressed in time). 60 in G corresponds w/ DOW 9200 in my scenario for reference purposes and is where i expect the first bounce on Tues. G as well as other stocks imploding show us how weak the hands are that currenctly own stocks at these heights: 207.95.154.130 NOW..... observe the following decisionpoint.com note the up-angled head and shoulder patterns.... the important thing to remember here is that these charts when viewed in most foreign currencies (particularly yen) have not hit new highs and are puting in 2ndary tops much like the TRAN and RUT are. The next move down is a crash move... but we should expect a stong bounce at around 9200 that lasts one or two days then we should just meltdown... I'm still looking for a lock-limit (gap over 7000) 3000 point decline on 4/19. note how everything fits in nicely... A/D line prep'd to crash... no support till 1995 levels (during a crash the indexes fall to catch-up w/ the A/D line): decisionpoint.com (note how the A/D line has hovered under the neckline of the 2 yr Head and Shoulders patternt hat projects to my 1995 levels.... this is our classic goodbye kiss.. the indexes shoul;d only take a day to perform this task.. (that is my bounce from 9200) RUT prep'd to crash.... 207.95.154.130 KO prep'd to crash..... (this one follows the yen almost exactly and leads a little.. thus confirming our coming crash in the dollar (a crash in the dollar is guaranteed in a stock mkt meltdown) 207.95.154.130 bonds look to follow stocks... 7% is our crash target although you could see a flight trash moron bid early in the week as clowns don't get it yet that bonds are no longer a flight to quality after all of Al's printing: decisionpoint.com UTIL confirms (a close below 288 and things should be getting absolutley silly in the broader mkt) 207.95.154.130 Now with stocks, bonds, and hence the dollar crashing... what's the only flight to quality-- ie- the only thing going up??? mmm? GOT GOLD? it is no coincidence that the Traders'Comms released on fri are an all-time bullish record and ensure that gold will be rising (they look awful for the dollar BTW)... thus it will attract most of the clowns that play the mkts these days.. ie- they chase anything going up. This will of course blow the gold caryy trade to pieces and cause the short covering rally of the century (let's hope -g-) All of these events colliding in a week before expiration... I do so love it when a plan comes together -g- decisionpoint.com we should see a move to $340 or $350 spot. 1987 track still holds.. note all the energy we have been building up.. coiling like a spring for several months now.... decisionpoint.com a move thru the zero line should coincide w/ the crash move. this POS looks so awful it makes me ill: decisionpoint.com bombs away.. note the H&S pattern that has formed on the CBOE ratio, those levels at the top haven't been seen since.. (you guessed it) 1987. The OEX ratio should bounce as we begin falling as it often moves counter trend early in the move, and end up mirroring what the CBOE has done.. ie- top.. fall and BIG bounce. decisionpoint.com so there we have it... everything is poised on the edge of the abyss... CPQ has provided the soft breeze that was necessary to blow this house of cards down.. next comes meltdown land!!! so strap in! -g- If I am right... expect a headline sometime midweek of : "analysts say big volume may be a sign of a bottom" ho ho I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that we close the week out at 8000 and lose 3000 to 4000 on Mon and Tues of the next week in a panic meltdown..... (of course this is the best case scenario... we could also bounce around up at 9000 and crash in a month or so.. all depends on how fast people panic, IMO) Although, once we get a close below 8000 we should implode to 4000... only a total meltdown will end this sucker. If we don't gap over 7000, it ain't gonna crash, and somebody has found a way to get out of some derivative K's w/ the help of Easy Al (i don't see how they can do this cause printing won't solve the problem... but who knows, maybe the Japanese will forego their rights in return for protection form N. Korea or some wierd garbage like that?) of course if I'm wrong.. I'll just push it to the right, as Mythie says -vbg-

To: Earlie who wrote (32399)	4/11/1999 5:45:00 AM
From: accountclosed	Respond to of 86076

oh ye of little faith <g>

To: Earlie who wrote (32399)	4/11/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

But in regard to the recent quarter, the AMD preannouncement that surfaced while we were at MU brings up a question. If AMD shipped 1.2 million units less than plan and not a single PC vendor complained about an inability to get processors, what would have happened if all 5.5 million AMD parts had been made and shipped? One logical response to this development is that the investment case for Intel is (not wholly, but substantially) dependent upon AMD having additional screw-ups going forward. Message 8840638