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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4399)	4/10/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 15132

RE: "... if you bring in a piece of crap you have to get rid of one. ... Old bottom fishers learn to live by this rule <g>. Just ask I2 <g>." I learned to live by that rule in the late 70's but I apparently forgot my lesson when I started hanging around SI. Go figure. Best wishes, I2

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4399)	4/11/1999 8:44:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

SSB on ETEC and AMAT The Past Week in Review... Etec Systems preannounced a shortfall in 3Q99 with revenues of $55-60M vs. our estimate of $71M. The company expects earnings per share of $0.10 vs. our previous estimate of $0.26 and consensus of $0.28. Although Etec's revenues are flattening out due to a lower than expected unit demand, we believe that the 0.18 micron semiconductor production ramp should begin in the Jan-July 2000 time frame, implying an up-tick in Etec's orders in the June-99 to Dec-99 time period, which is well within the current discounting horizon. We expect Etec's order activity to accelerate as it has a monopoly in supplying high-end pattern generation equipment. We revised our FY99 sales estimate to $246M from $289M and EPS to $0.71 from $1.18. For FY00, we are modeling revenues of $295M vs. $387M and EPS of $1.24 vs. $2.34. We also adjusted our price target from $69 to $62, or 4x our calendar 2000 sales-per-share estimate of $15.6. Applied Materials hosted an upbeat analyst meeting this past week in Santa Clara, highlighting market share gains and solid gross margin expectations. We expect 2Q99 to be on track with bookings of $1.2-$1.3 billion and believe there is a tremendous gross margin story waiting to unfold, with continued market share gains and cost reductions during the current upcycle. We reiterate our 1H (Buy, High Risk) rating and price target of $76. SSB Japan Analyst, Hiroshi Yoshihara, increased his price target on Tokyo Electron from 6,000 yen to 7,000 yen, or 36x FY01 EPS estimate of 196 yen. Orders are expected to recover steadily quarter by quarter, and the market will begin factoring in projected EPS through FY01 as the new fiscal year gets under way.