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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (2690)	4/14/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4134

@Home has shown some pretty good sequential growth as well as clued us in on some of the capacity expansion that is happened over the last quarter. All looks pretty good. On another note, I saw this article on optical connectors and thought it might interest you. I'm not sure how effects Harmonic Light Waves directly except that it must lower some of their component costs which can only be good. Regards, Mark From Electronic News--April 12, 1999 Price Squeeze In Fiber Optics By Ken Fleck Fiber optic connectors may be growing, but price erosion is a major drag on the business. In singlemode ST fiber optic connector designs, price erosion continued in 1998, with most suppliers reporting up to a 15 percent decline. Prices for multimode STs are usually in the $1.75 to $2.00 range. However, on large volume buys, 1998 saw prices often fall into the $1.35 to $1.45 range, and some parts may be tagged even less. The lowest price admitted to by manufacturers on the floor of the recent OFC (Optical Fiber Communication Conference) in San Diego was $1.28. However imports from China and Taiwan are reportedly coming into the United States at much lower prices. For example, the ceramic plus holder ($0.53), body ($0.07), spring (less than 1 cent), boot (less than $.05) with assemble at ($.02), means that, including import, the multimode ST reaches the United States at $.70. Thus ST cable assembly houses sell for $1.00 or under. Price erosion in Europe was even greater than the United States or some 30 percent. At these low prices, there are no special termination features (enhancement features to make field installation easier). The lowest singlemode ST prices are normally in the $5 to $6 range, but with large volume, prices fall even further becoming more competitive; the lowest uncovered by us in 1998 was $3.75. Cable assemblers, however, reported even lower prices. Meanwhile, the top ten fiber optic connector manufacturers in North America, from the top down, are Lucent, AMP, 3M, ADC Telecommunications, Siecor, Molex, Alcoa Fujikura, Fiber Optic Network Solutions, Amphenol and Methode. On a worldwide basis, there are now three manufacturers that have reached the $100 million shipment level. In 1998, Lucent and AMP (nearly equal in volume) were approaching $200 million in sales. 3M also reached the $100 million in shipment mark. All figures and rankings exclude transceivers. In fiber optic technology, development is proceeding on "fiber-in-board". One such development program is at the GEC-Marconi Research Center in the United Kingdom, where scientists and engineers at the center have been engaged in advanced development of fiber-in-board technology. GEC offers application in optical backplanes by combining multilayer printed circuit board fabrication with fiber optic techniques. Also, the routing of fibers within the board in I/O connections to the board are adjusted to each application. One backplane available is a 64-way, singlemode, fiber backplane incorporating 16x16 integrated optic star coupler. Prototypes have been developed for up to 10 layers of fiber (thickness of the board about 1/2 inch). Other manufacturers have developed fiber-in-board. One such example is Lucent. They have developed fiber-in-board (referred to as Opti-Flex) for their own captive use. Nippon Telephone & Telegraph Electronics (Japan) has an optical wiring board, which has a flex structure as opposed to semi-flex or rigid. AMP, likewise, has expended major research efforts and can introduce product when required by an OEM. Fleck Research forecasts that fiber-in-board optical backpanels sales will reach $87 million worldwide within five years. Within ten years, sales of optical backpanels will be astounding. Ken Fleck is the founder of Fleck Research and can be reached at www.fleckresesearch.com