To: KYA27 who wrote (2407 ) 4/12/1999 2:20:00 PM From: G. Richmond Respond to of 14638
KYA27, have you read this? The New York Times April 11, 1999 Page 1, Column 1 ...........Lately, Lucent Technologies, a leader in communications systems, has caught Mr. Olstein's eye. It closed on Friday at $63.625, or 54 times 1999 estimates,............. .......''Lucent is a great company,'' Mr. Olstein said, but not the growth company investors think it is. Even if that report astounds, Mr. Olstein points to other areas that make him fret about Lucent's growth. For instance, during the past two years, Lucent has written off $2.5 billion of research and development ............Charging such expenses to earnings makes future income look better than that in earlier quarters............. ......... Arthur Levitt, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has worried that companies may use such write-offs to manage earnings............ .........As for Lucent's $480 million revenue increase in the latest quarter, Mr. Olstein said that about $200 million came from reconsolidating its folded joint venture with Philips Electronics. In his view, revenue from continuing operations showed only 3 percent growth in the quarter. Meanwhile, accounts receivable and inventories were up 43 percent and 46 percent, respectively.......... ............Even then, Mr. Olstein reckons that 19 cents of the 20-cent increase came from three items: another accounting change, a lower tax rate and a smaller allowance for accounts unlikely to be paid.......... ........''Eliminate all this stuff, and maybe you're not paying 54 times earnings. You're paying a lot more,'' Mr. Olstein said. ''But nobody cares about risk until they lose money.''