Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Colvin who wrote (8923)	4/11/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: David Colvin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

To all, Since Compaq announced late Friday after the bell a warning of only $0.15 EPS vs. analysts consensus estimates of $0.31 EPS (a more than 50% deficiency), causing their stock to get hammered in after hours trading, it will be interesting to see if a bunch of "nervous Nellies" do the "guilt by association thing" and stampede into a big sell off in Iomega tomorrow. If so, it may present a tremendous buying opportunity in the next day or two. Dave

To: David Colvin who wrote (8923)	4/11/1999 5:52:00 PM
From: Ken Pomaranski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10072

<< Note big jump in Q4 1999. This is Clik! really kicking in. (500,000 units in that quarter). That would be quite a feat! Also, why did you estimate $2.2 billion in revenues for 2000 when I only estimated $2.0 billion in revenues for the same period. Where is all that revenue going to come from if the Clik! drive is DOA? Did you have some other yet to be announced product in mind? >> Good questions. My model assummed a 'best case' scenario for Iomega. (Check my assumption lists). I give Iomega a 2-5% chance of beating this model. I also stated that my model would estimate earnings / revenues too high if CLIK! failed to come through. Also, I gave an allowance (buffer) for some new product, like the PCMCIA CLIK!, which MAY have a positive impact (as I noted in my long post). Also, I modelled a big jump at the beginning (similar to ZIP) as the early adopters get in. I fully expect the CLIK! to follow the same general curve as the ZIP (smaller scale) which has the product dying in 2001-2002. In other words, I 'padded' my estimate. ;) I have a 50/50 model which I didn't post, because it was too grim. This one has CLIK! failing miserably. I'm willing to give Iomega the benefit of the doubt for the time being, because Iomega 'may' have some smarter people than me working for them ;) kp