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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (39477)	4/12/1999 7:06:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, This lower opening will probably be the low of the day, or close to it.....(gulp) GZ

To: William H Huebl who wrote (39477)	4/12/1999 7:52:00 AM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Well Kanunites, is this it? As we all know the market has been pushed up by a handful of stocks (as Ralphie Makempoorer says, "so what, buy them!"). If they crumble there is no help below. Here is a warning to the BTDers from one of the listserv gurus I listen to (Dhruv Sheth on longwaves) who, along with Armstrong (PEI) predicted that April 8th would be the end of this bull market: With the bombshell from Compaq, the last year 4th quarter recovery in the fundamentals of the tech sector is seriously under question. The 4th quarter improvement was more akin to a wave 2 rally; or a contra trend move, in Elliott jargon. Now that the hype created by that is unlikely to be defensible, I would expect a sustained, sharp decline in the tech stocks. Internet stocks most likely would collapse from here. If the broadly defined tech sector is retreating , what is going to keep the major indices up? Financials? I doubt it. The banking sector index has had a classic wave 2 rally, and is about to sink into the abyss of 3rd wave decline. The brokers, especially the internet ones are likely to be in deep doo-doo too! So pick your stocks in tech, banking ,brokers, and internet stocks and short them. If it is too tough to select the stocks, pick the sector indices and do 6 month 15-20% out of money puts on them. The time is here , it appears to be unequivocal bear. There are no legs left for the bull.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (39477)	4/12/1999 3:37:00 PM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

ahead -- a deja vu all over again? Goldman, Sachs, and Company launched Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation (GSTC) on December 4, 1928 with an initial public offering of a million shares at $100 per share, of which 90% were sold to the public at $104 per share. According to J.K. Galbraith in his book "The Great Crash 1929", control of GSTC remained with the parent company "by virtue of a management contract and the presence of the partners of the company on the board" of GSTC. GSTC sold more shares to the public only two months after its formation, and "on February 21 it merged with . . . Financial and Industrial Securities Corporation . . .", doubling the firms' asset value in less than three months. In the following months up to the Crash, GSTC would purchase controlling interest in firms and sell them for a profit; buy back its own shares, sell them again at a profit; and repurchase them to do it all over again. As Galbraith recounts, "Years later, on a gray dawn in Washington, the colloquy occurred before a committee of the United States Senate. Senator couzens: Did Goldman, Sachs and Company organize the goldman, Sachs Trading Corporation? Mr. Sachs: Yes, sir. Couzens: And it sold it back to the public? Sachs: A portion of it. The firm invested originally in 10% of the entire issue for the sum of $100,000,000. Couzens: And the other 90% was sold to the public? Sachs: Yes, sir. Couzens: At what price? Sachs: At 104. That is the old stock . . . the stock was split two for one. Couzens: And what is the price of the stock now? Sachs: Approximately 1 3/4. From Galbraigh, The Great Crash of 1929.* Thanks to Roger Babson)*