To: REW who wrote (25136 ) 4/12/1999 9:23:00 AM From: The Swordsman Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 44908
Bob, Watching you fella's with this evaluation stuff has me going a little battso. Everyone here should know by now that I have a problem with various facets of the company's willingness to be forthcoming about share dilution and its now legendary inside deals to line the pocket of certain people. I still very much believe that to be an unseemly side of what could be the stock of the last century. I hope management quickly loses its taste for this kind of activity. However, when it comes to valuation. At 40 centavos a share, I have to temporarily suspend my increduliosity and look the other way on these lapses in CEO judgement and say... I'm still in. Adding to that, I won't bore you with a long drawn out hashing of where the dough will come from. Bob, you've done an admirable job of that already. But let's get our $hit together here. I have to ask a couple of questions. 1. No more deals for the rest of the year? NO way. 2. Conservative? You call your projections conservative? They're grossly understated. IMHO I know what you're doing and I applaud you for it. But let's not be blind to the greater probability. 3. 20 PE? Now here's where I have to really take issue. TSIG has the opportunity to be the First E-Commerce company to show a profit and you want to cripple it with a 20 PE. Just because it's on the BB OTC? C'mon guys, get realistic. If TSIG even hits a fraction of these projections, do you really believe that they'll still be on the BB? Furthermore, I would not use anything less than a 50 PE and that's conservative. Forward looking you know and all that. AMZN has done an admirable job of building on their core business. They don't know what's around the corner and they cannot project a profit for at least another 18 months. They enjoy a PE that is dumb and dumber incalculable. They have a market cap of roughly 29 Billion dollars. That translates into $116 NET PROFIT to be earned from EVERY living person in the United States. Not families not just adults, but EVERY person. Now that's really forward looking and saves no allowance for what TSIG is about to do to them or for that matter what anyone else is about to do to them. TSIG will show a profit this year and have more customers than AMZN. And yes of course TSIG will probably be delivering books and pharmacy before the year is out. Video's DVD's and downloadable music as well. Once the model is in place, new fulfillment can be added relatively easy. It is my firm belief that TSIG can show a market cap of at least half of AMZN's by years end or sooner. Execution, execution, execution etc. etc. etc. That translates into a share price against an estimated 73 million shares in the unthinkable $200 plus range. Now before everyone starts on my case, let me clearly state that I'm willing to be more conservative and accept a share price of $75 or more. Please poke some holes in that scenario for awhile. Sword.Com