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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (10660)	4/12/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 99985

Favors getting Bearish. I just received his monthly. He is talking new highs/los, A/D line, Trin 5. "...the market is vulnerable to a sharp correction." More details later.

To: bobby beara who wrote (10660)	4/12/1999 12:01:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, The DOW is right now testing its previous peak at 10,200 range, if if it breaks it to the upside significantly thats a strong positive for the overall market. Per the CANDLESTICK if the dow does not go much higher and closes near its highs then that would be a perfect HANGING MAN which is a significant reversal signal. Lots of mixed signals again. seeya

To: bobby beara who wrote (10660)	4/12/1999 1:06:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

BB, Peter Eliades e-mailed me info on the Hindenberg indicator Here is his response. I believe the gentleman who discovered it is Jim Miekka. The indicator has been publicized by Kennedy Gammage of the Richland Report newsletter. It is an offshoot of Norm Fosback's High-Low Logic Index which looks for the same type configuration with weekly new highs and new lows. Fosback takes the lower of weekly 52 week highs and lows and divides it by the number of issues traded for the week. He then keeps an exponential 10 week MA of that figure. When it reaches 4.5%, it theoretically gives a sell signal. Gerald Appel has added that he feels any single week reading above 7% (or is it 7.5%-I'm not sure) is also a sell signal. As to the Hindenburg itself, there are other requirements besides the simple ones you have given. The McClellan Oscillator must move below zero after the calculations and parameters you give are met in order to trigger the signal. To say the market crashes within a week after the Hindenburg is seen is a gross exaggeration. There have been some significant declines after Hindenburg signals, but there have been several non events also. The last non event was on January 29 of this year and before that on December 22, 1998. Interestingly, the preliminary Hindenburg signals had been given on September 30, 1998, and the McClellan Oscillator went below zero on October 5, setting up the possibility of a sharp decline/crash. The Dow never closed lower than October 5 through today. The Hindenburg did give preliminary signals in June-July 1998. The first confirmed signal came on July 21, 1998 (confirmed by seeing the McClellan Oscillator go below zero), and it was perfectly timed. Whether it led to crash-like behavior or not is open to debate. It is, at best, a faulted indicator and like so many others lately has been giving its share of "false negatives." Peter Eliades Stockmarket Cycles Alas, another indicator relegated to the huge junkpile of broken signals and systems caused by the mania phase of this bull market. --earlier post to you on what the parameters might be 127.0.0.1:3456/SI/~wsapi/investor/reply-8850205 JOhn