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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (344)	4/12/1999 12:53:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2103

Jaime: Re > Without the emotions involved <<< that's the key yet we all slip up there at times, while I believe I'm better than average ( I still catch myself at it ) . I also believe being able to catch myself at it is what helps me avoid it most of the time. -------------------- Over and over on the MDA tread I have given this little ditty, A person has to know when "not to make a bet" when to just sit things out. Or make very small bets and add to them IF it goes your way. To often the market just can not be called, and if we we can call it even the majority of the time, we can still kidd ourself. The Key is not being able to call the market the majority of the time, but in that the majority (80% or so) of what calls we do make are correct. There is no harm in not making a call. ------------------------ Before getting involved so much in stocks I hung out at the race tracks, and I know that the people who bet every race were the big losers over time. I watch them closely too. ----------------------- Conservation of capital is often said to be the first rule in the stock market. I think the reason for that is it cost to trade both the commission and the spread, and that can add up and another thing that gets you is if you lose 20% of your capital you have to make 25% to get back even, and still have the commissions and spread to overcome. So being right the majority or time don't get it unless when you are right the move is substantial enough to offset the losers and the overhead. The odds we get are more important than the number of times we can be right. ------------------------- In a nut shell when signals are mixed drop the anchor or go real slow, there is nothing wrong in not making a call, getting caught up in looking at what you missed often sucks you in at the wrong time. What you missed is water over the dam the market is not going away and there is always another day if you hang onto your dry powder. ------------------------------ They can have the upside , I'll wait for a correction, I have a very small short on the MDY right now but that's it. Signals are too mixed , and other things just don't look right it's like going to a dog track in the rain, ( all regular handicapping is off ) only bet a few outside dogs if they are good breakers, and the crowd leaves good odds on them the wet track will mess up any system. -------------------- We have a wet track in the market right now, systems tend to break down , if people that win right now become convinced their system did it that sets them up. The bond market is bigger than the stock market, and I know you have heard of "the bond linkage has disconnected from the market" well all it means is that a normal system is not working. Right now we have that, plus a bad A/D line plus more new lows than highs, on the other hand the Head/tail and other TA has been saying buy. Well the chance of the on going buys in the face of mixed signals reduce when the market is high, so the odds are not as good and as far as I'm concerned not good enough to bet on. Jim