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-OT- Recent buys are Sanchez SCAI, National Discount Brokers NDB, and Check Free CKFR. Here is the problem. Take NDB. It popped up on my radar screen two weeks ago @$28. I researched it, and liked what I saw. Being pretty fully invested, just decided to wait awhile. Before I knew it, it was $49 on Fri., so I decided to just take a small position, so I could keep a better eye on it. Wouldn't you know it, order imbalance this morning, opens 1/2 hour late at $45-I'm thinking whew, glad I didn't take a full position. CLOSE $62 1/2, up $15 7/8!! Is it still a buy?, haven't the foggiest notion. This is to bizarre. It is not enough to give advice on which stocks will go up, it is easy to pick lots of them, and if it were a high school class contest with paper money, you would just buy them. In the real world with very real and important $ on the line, the equation has to meet a different standard. Not only is it likely to go up, but what is the risk/reward. I usually like a 3 to 5 reward vs.1 risk ratio, but in this market, I have had to fudge at times and go down to situations, where I view the reward/risk ratio at 2 or 3 reward vs. 1 risk. Does NDB or SCAI meet that criteria? They did a few days ago, but do they now? Not sure, though strong holds. Check free looks pretty interesting, though volatile. Since this is a momentum market and the stocks doing best are the ones which by traditional valuation criteria are are the most expensive, I think it would be prudent to initiate only partial positions or use wide stops on the volatile ones. My core long term holdings include SFE [largest], Tellabs TLAB, SCAI [newest core holding], Ben Franklin BENJ [mystery stock I mentioned the end of last year], Lehman LEH, and more conservative Citigroup C, [Sandy Weil is a business genius, and look for a positive earnings surprise when they announce IMO], and American Express AXP [Harvey Gollub very sharp]. In addition to a core position in SFE [from $3.25] that would take an unGodly price to get me out of, I have a trading position of which I have sold some recently. If SFE takes a dive unexpectedly I will re-purchase. Recent stocks I have liked, but got away without being on board, include At Home and Go To Net GNET, the owners of this service SI. Even though this market is custom made for using Technical Analysis which I use, I always include Fundamental Analysis in making the final decision.That influence has negatively affected decisions on buying At Home, and GNET-now they are double in a short time. We are dealing with new valuation criteria in some respects. EX. Go To Net was $90, looked good technically, but traditionally way overpriced, it held me back. Paul Allen of Microsoft fame subsequently purchased over $700 M. worth at much higher prices. He ain't stupid. We are all a work in progress improvement is possible and achievable if we keep an open mind. A long answer, but hope it helps. If you pinned me down this minute, and said what would I buy on margin right now with real money, I would say nothing. That may change by tomorrow. Would be interested in quite a few with just a modest pullback. P.S. For those who disbelieve in T/A, the record of T/A posts on this board since Jan 1st. and the behavior both up and down subsequent to those posts has been impressive enough to cast some doubt on maintaining that belief. Paraphrasing a post from around Jan., when the blastoff began in the mid $20s Using fundamental analysis alone will cause one to miss the boat on SFE, using TA will be vital. I still think TA, FA, psychological analysis [and its influence on money flows] in combination, weighed differently according to each situation, is most effective, certainly, over the years, TA has become an integral part.. Mike |
