To: CIMA who wrote (746 ) 4/12/1999 6:05:00 PM From: Jim Bishop Respond to of 1650
MarketMavensReport.com Gold Market: Glittering Ideas Updated every Thursday Books: Gold & Gold Stocks Newsletters: Gold & Metals Look for Gold Stocks to Explode Posted Thursday, April 08, 1999 at 09:42 AM EST by Frank Barbera Gold Stock Technician Newsletter Long overlooked and much derided, Gold is in the process of recording a multi-year bear market bottom and will begin a new bull market in 1999. Underlying the coming bull market in gold will be a weaker U.S. Dollar, which will decline as a result of lower interest rates, a weakening economy, a widening trade deficit and money supply growth, which at an annual rate of 10%, is now pressing against multi-year highs. A lower dollar will also begin to provide some relief for corporate profit growth, which is now negative for the first time since the 1991 recession. We expect gold to challenge the $350 to $360 area by year end and move above $400 in twenty hundred. Gold stocks will explode to the upside amid the surge in bullion after having spent the balance of the past three years in decline. In our outlook for 1999, we have stated that gold stocks should notch triple digit annual gains with the second half of the year providing most of the strength. The U.S. stock market is peaking a 25 year secular bull market at the current time and should register a major, multi-year top in the first quarter of 1999. By year's end we expect the popular market averages should be down by at least 15% to 20% and could end up considerably lower if the Dow breaks key support in the 7400 area. Deflation and a continuation of the currency problems in both Asia and Latin America will be driving forces behind the approaching bear market in equities. Internet stocks, most recently the subject of an obscene mania, will decline by at least 40% to 50% between now and year end. Among senior mining issues, our top pick for overall safety, growth and performance is Euro-Nevada Mining Corporation (Toronto:EN.TO 21.50), a royalty-mining company. Together with sister company Franco-Nevada (Toronto:FN.TO 24.20), Euro-Nevada owns and operates the Ken Snyder Mine on the Midas property in Nevada. Combined with sharply increasing revenues from its Miekle Mine royalty (operated by Barrick Gold ABX), Euro-Nevada will continue its multi-year bull market and as the 'bluest of all mining blue-chips', will in all likelihood, lead the gold stocks in the coming bull market advance. Among other mining companies we also believe that Stillwater Mining (AMEX SWC 28 7/16) is uniquely positioned to benefit from sharply higher prices for both platinum and palladium, both of which are in increasingly short supply. Among junior mining companies, Campbell Resources (NYSE CCH 1/4), Agnico Eagle (NYSE AEM 5 3/16), Goldcorp (NYSE GGA 5 7/8), and Alta Gold (Nasdaq ALTA 1/2) all appear to be fundamentally sound and on a price basis, appear to be close to recording major bear market lows. Source: Gold Stock Technician Newsletter, P.O. Box 2708, Palos Verdes Peninsula, CA 90275.