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Non-Tech : Charles Schwab (SCH) -- A tech-stock profile? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stock_bull69 who wrote (425)4/14/1999 12:21:00 AM
From: Peter Goss  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1390
 
I suggest you do your homework Peter.>>>

Actually, when I do my homework is when I have to come to scary conclusions. No investor on this thread has addressed my concerns. They just all say "it's going up therefore it must keep going up."

The homework to pay attention to:

-peak earnings are now; paying an astronomical multiple for the best it will ever be is unsound

-Schwab is not some startup that can grow from a small base. The law of large numbers is a reality.

-Is Schwab really worth two MER?

You have been given a chance to cash out at levels that will not be seen for years to come. But most people on the SCH juice think that it will never end. The stock has tripled in three months - has business tripled? Are earnings tripling? Most first line brokerages have mid teen multiples, but SCH's current price is 140x FORWARD earnings.

I would be interested in hearing some rational analysis, not cheerleading. Why should I buy SCH at $150. Today alone more than $1 billion made that very decision.

As for those other names - I can't even begin to say how scary they are. The internet is real, but the stock prices are surreal. Investors - and I use that term cautiously - are confusing finance with PR.

Congratulations on your profits,

Peter



To: stock_bull69 who wrote (425)4/15/1999 1:02:00 PM
From: Greg Jung  Respond to of 1390
 
49er, your suggestion was prophetic and uncanny in its timeliness:


PS Would be interested in your feelings about RNWK, CMGI, AOL, MSGI and many other high flying INETS. Should we be pressing the sell button for these as well?


Just doing my homework, (for these stocks price, psychology, and probability is the only rational information available) and I offer as
profound example of blowoff short run:


Daily price range (1)
Symbol 4/15 4/14 4/13 4/12 possible support (2)
SCH 135-114 155-135 152-133
RNWK 195-163 240-183 263-228 247-216 130
CMGI 265-221 308-255 330-293 308-252 170
AOL 152-135 163-150 164-155 159-148 120
MSGI 41-30 57-35 60-46 42-27 8

NOTES:
1: ranges obtained from SI quote system. No guarantee, etc.
Range for 4/15 (today) is as of 12:30 pm
2: eyeball estimate from 20-day chart, possible trading buy point,
NOT A BUY RECCOMENDATION



Greg