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To: soup who wrote (23904)	4/13/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: soup	Respond to of 213177

Who'll Stop the Rain? As a value investor, singed by previous biotech and emerging market bubbles, I've been thinking about what event would likely precipitate the popping of the net stocks. The ascent of those brave new asset classes were distinguished by an inability of analysts to realistically quantify the upside: "If this drug really does cure athlete's foot and 1 billion Chinese have 2 billion feet and each has ten toes then ... etc." The bubble started to burst when high profile drugs started failing clinical trials: "The control group did better by wearing sandals ..." or emerging countries' economies imploded as a result of years of hot-money driven over-expansion: "If they only make $20 month, how are they going to pay $25 for foot powder?" etc. I'm going to go out on a limb thinking the first to fall might be RNWK. A convincing demo of QT4 at NAB, coupled with the announcement of licensing agreement with high end content providers - Disney/Cap Cities for instance - could do it. It would remind the investment community that the original premise of the internet was an emerging communications standard with no barriers to entry. Anyone can put up portal; set up an auction; develop a better browser -- or media player. I remember, in 1992-3, when Centocor (CNTO) corrected from $60 to $5 on clinical trials snafus: quote.yahoo.com They have since regained much of that loss, but that is because they developed a body of patent-able technology. The biotech industry (for better or worse) has high barriers to entry. There is nothing protecting any of high-flying internet stocks from a deep pocket competitor. Example: Any day, I'm expecting Bell Atlantic to offer me an ADSL/phone service deal I can't refuse. If so, goodbye Mindspring (AOL, etc.) Anyway, this post could go on forever, but you all got the point three paragraphs ago.

To: soup who wrote (23904)	4/13/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: sally duros	Respond to of 213177

I believe DVD will be adopted as a standard. In five years, certainly in 10, video will no longer be the standard for watching movies. DVDs are replacing laser discs as the medium preferred by movie buffs. Many DVDs are coming bundled with special content you can view on a pc with DVD player. I think there is a market opportunity here for aapl, as they have the "brand" as the preferred choice for creatives, including filmmakers. "Nonetheless, I think it would be great to have DVD, along with an AM/FM/TV tuner, as a BTO option on an iMac making it computer-cum-entertainment-system-dormroom-solution". I really like your option 5. Cool idea.