To: Ausdauer who wrote (5382 ) 4/14/1999 7:56:00 AM From: Art Bechhoefer Respond to of 60323
Aus, those are very perceptive comments on reasons other than short selling. My own experience with QUALCOMM, which I originally bought in 1992, reflects my convictions about the actions of short sellers. Until just recently, QUALCOMM was no favorite of institutional investors but was a stock that could be fairly easily manipulated by short term traders. Whenever an analyst made some fairly pessimistic comments about QUALCOMM's patents, CDMA system, etc., short interest would rise. Then, generally just a few days prior to release of quarterly earnings, there seemed to be substantial buying, possibly to cover the shorts. Once the favorable earnings report came out, the stock didn't go up as one might expect, but leveled off or even went down, indicating that the shares had probably been bought in anticipation of a good report and then sold immediately thereafter. With SANDISK, I see similar action taking place. Many brokerage firms that follow the stock probably encourage their trading room staff to make short term plays to profit on fluctuations of even one or two points. Given the size of the company and the rather limited float, it doesn't take much action to drive the stock down or up. I think we are seeing the classic example of this strategy right now, with the stock beginning to show a little strength PRIOR TO the earnings announcement later today. If the pattern I noticed over the years with QCOM holds for SNDK, we'll see the stock go up today and probably for one or two more days, at which point it will hit a plateau, where it will be subject to downward pressure if short selling begins once again. A lot will depend on how good or bad the earnings are, and even more important, the evidence on whether SNDK is maintaining its market position in light of increased pressure from Toshiba and Sony. Art