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Technology Stocks : Covad Communications - COVD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill McCullen who wrote (62)	4/13/1999 12:19:00 PM
From: JayPC	Respond to of 10485

@HOME is also a portal and an ISP. The revenue stream is twofold eom regards Jay

To: Bill McCullen who wrote (62)	4/13/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10485

Bill, You ask an important question - how will the home market will split between @Home, Cable modems and DSL. The DSL clecs and ISPs are trying to bifurcate the market between business and residence. They want to maintain the margins for business users while getting the volume of residential. They are doing this by making claims about reliability, limiting bandwidth at low prices, etc. But there is no question that the Clecs and ilecs will be getting into the residence at moderate prices. PacBell has already done that. I can't believe Covad is very far behind. The most important things the Clecs "own" are 1) the relationships with the ISPs. New clecs will have a hard time breaking in after the ISPs have chosen their preferred clecs. And the Ilecs (at least PacBell) is not likely to be a choice for ISPs other than PacBell Internet. 2) An effective service model. Setting up a DSL circuit is involved. One needs to know how to do it. One has to have a good working relationship with the copper supplying ilec. In fact, some of the clecs have a better model of the cable plant than the ilec does (ie. wires sizes in the streets, etc.) The threats I see are that PacBell (or Ilecs) will get most of the market because they can offer lower costs by piggybacking on a home user's normal phone line. But the Ilecs may have too much bureaucracy too capitalize. And secondly, that home service will primarily use technologies other than DSL. -- Alan

To: Bill McCullen who wrote (62)	4/13/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: John Curtis	Respond to of 10485

Bill: Oh I agree that there's a weee tad bit of mania going on right now. And history has provided, to anyone astute enough to follow it, the data necessary to understand how all mania's end. Meanwhile, however, to a certain real extent the companies providing xDSL to the business community(the COVD's, etc.) are currently benefiting from it, to say nothing of us lucky ones currently along for the ride. Need I say weeeeeee!!!!!? ;-) Be that as it may, the LEC's are definitely starting to roll out the same technology, with their initial roll-outs targeting areas based on demographics. Business areas are a given, but to use Bell Atlantic as one example, they are also targeting residential areas where the average net worth is sufficient such that ~$80 per month of xDSL T-1 level connectivity isn't gonna deter them should they want it. And if I can use the area where I live as an example....THEY WANT IT! But I'll admit, with a DEC Alpha workstation and all kinds of other "stuff"(heh) at home, that I may not be an example of yer average consumer. I built my first PC waaay back before they became the popular devices they are today. My bet is xDSL will become equally as popular over the next 2 years. Clearly, other xDSL players(and the LEC/CLEC community) feels the same. Now let's see how it allllll plays out. Regards! John~