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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (170)	4/13/1999 4:38:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 52153

I'm working on sales numbers now... which is an attempt to find some "repeatable revenues" (a measure of safety?) royalty, sales, or anything else we think is sustainable for a while. I'll toss in whatever numbers those in the know would be kind enough to "guestimate"... or I'll guess as I get around to it. Comp #Sh(mil) $(mil) $/shr Price Cap(mil) %$/Val 98'Exp Revs Burn Sales Sls/Exp Insidr REGN 31.00 $113 3.65 6.25 $194 58% 17.0 9.0 7% 15 88% 0.6 GLIA 10.1 $25 2.47 20 $202 12% 30.0 17.3 51% 30 100% 0 CEPH 28.7 $60 2.09 12 $345 17% 74.6 15.6 98% 21 28% 0 CORR 24.4 $50 2.05 10.5 $256 20% 73.2 41.9 63% 20 27% 5 MOGN 15.0 $17 1.13 11 $165 10% 15.1 17.6 -15% 13 86% 0 MLNM 34.2 $150 4.38 33 $1,129 13% 139.0 133.7 4% 100 72% 0 INCY 29.3 $110 3.75 26 $763 14% 133.0 134.8 -2% 170 128% 0 PDLI 18.6 $140 7.53 17 $316 44% 40.0 30.0 7% 15 38% 0.5 GLFD 19.6 $120 6.14 10.5 $205 58% 50.3 12.5 32% 6.6 13% 0.5 SIBI 9.5 $13 1.37 5 $48 27% 25.5 7.0 142% 0 2.14 VRTX 25.3 $245 9.67 25 $634 39% 77.5 44.5 13% 0 LGND 35.0 $53 1.51 9 $315 17% 87.0 25.0 117% 20 23% 0 PCOP 20.2 $52 2.57 6 $121 43% 105.7 92.2 26% 62 59% 0 PARS 37.0 $2 0.06 1.5 $56 4% 6.1 1.5 200% 1.2 20% 0.06 MBIO 19.6 $57 2.91 5 $98 58% 18.7 8.1 19% 0 0 CLTR 17.3 $130 7.52 19 $329 40% 40.0 34.0 5% 0.48 CELG 16.4 $18 1.06 17 $280 6% 28.0 3.8 138% ? 0.08 ALKS 24.9 $171 6.87 28 $697 25% 45.9 40.0 3% 0 AVIR 15.7 $95 6.05 19.5 $306 31% 56.6 1.0 59% 0 MEDX 31.3 $30 0.96 3 $94 32% 29.2 6.7 75% 0 GELX 16.0 $110 6.87 14.25 $228 48% 41.1 32.7 8% 0 PGNS 17.2 $65 3.79 13 $223 29% 62.6 61.1 2% 4.2 CGPI 8.6 $10 1.17 8 $69 15% 16.0 3.0 130% 0.28 NBIX 18.8 $59 3.14 5 $94 63% 28.5 16.0 21% 0 0.1 PCYC 12.3 $45 3.66 16.5 $203 22% 16.0 0.0 36% 0 ONXX 11.4 $20 1.75 6 $69 29% 30.6 9.3 107% 0 0.04 AXPH 30.0 $72 2.40 4 $120 60% 78.6 47.4 43% 0 0.36 TTP 13.1 $10 0.76 3.25 $43 23% 11.5 0.0 115% 0 0.2 ABGX 14.0 $55 3.93 14 $196 28% 21.0 3.8 31% 0 SNAP 10.7 $56 5.23 7.5 $80 70% 19.0 9.0 18% 0 1.6 NPSP 12.5 $40 3.20 7.5 $94 43% 23.4 3.6 50% 7.5 SUPG 20.4 $13 0.62 11 $224 6% 19.5 3.0 130% 0.3 OSIP 21.4 $22 1.04 7 $150 15% 31.0 19.5 52% 0 0.1 BTRN 8.6 $20 2.33 2.25 $19 104% 17.2 8.0 46% 0 0 LKST 11.90 $27 2.23 8.25 $98 27% 23.8 12.0 45% 0.6 CTII 18.4 $12 0.65 1.25 $23 52% 22.3 8.8 112% 0 0.15 *Revs & Exp in Millions ALKS 9 month data,SIBI lawsuit not included,LGND warrants not included. CEPH recent financing not included. Insider is $val in millions purchased by ANY filer in the past year @ mkt prices Sales is MY estimates for '99…. Feel free to "chip in" Please! Sls/Exp is my lame attempt to compare "sustainable" revenues to expenses,ie. 100% would supposedly be sustainable 0 Burn.