To: Maurice Winn who wrote (26892 ) 4/13/1999 3:44:00 PM From: Ruffian Respond to of 152472
Bloomberg> ENDING OF THE 3G IPR WAR BETWEEN ERICSSON AND QUALCOMM MAY CAUSE Network Operators to Plunge Over a Cliff to Financial Chaos, According to New Shosteck Study Business Editors WHEATON, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 13, 1999--With the IPR war between Ericsson and Qualcomm closing, the barrier to 3G auctions has fallen, according to a new study published by Herschel Shosteck Associates, Ltd. The study is entitled The Political Drivers Behind Spectrum Value: The Profit Risks and Implications for Third Generation Wireless (3G). "While the IPR war raged, progress toward 3G auctions, standards, equipment, and deployment were delayed and network operators could defer dealing with whether a realistic business case warranted the 3G investment required. With the War over, they can no longer defer," states Jane Zweig, Executive Vice President of Herschel Shosteck Associates, Ltd. "Now little bars European and Rest of World network operators from plunging over a cliff to financial chaos." The study argues that carriers face governmental, regulatory, and manufacturer claims that new technologies will enable new services for which end users will pay. However, these claims mask a convergence of interests by these parties to enhance the value of technologies and the spectrum associated with it. "Spectrum bidders which fail to appreciate this may find themselves afflicted by the 'winner's curse' - a spectrum license for which they pay dearly and which may hold far less value than they initially assumed," comments Ms. Zweig. The firm observes that governments have a political agenda to sell spectrum at a maximum price. Spectrum can painlessly provide billions of dollars for treasury coffers. As such, governments are motivated to enhance the value of spectrum - regardless of the business case. The study posits that notwithstanding greater use, spectrum is shifting from shortage to oversupply. As a consequence of oversupply, the value of spectrum is declining. The study documents that spectrum value has collapsed from as high as $208 million per megahertz for a nationwide license to less than $1 million per megahertz. "This is happening regardless of the economic or market merits of such technologies - whether LMDS spectrum or impending auctions for Third Generation (3G) spectrum," states Ms. Zweig. "Spectrum, which was once a scarce resource no longer is. Spectrum value is declining and will continue to do so." "The interests of governments and regulators in maintaining and raising the value of spectrum are, in part shared by manufacturers. In the case of 3G, manufacturer interests center on selling equipment for such services as multi-media and full motion video to end users," states Ms. Zweig. "The transition to 3G is fraught with risk - the greatest of which is the uncertain business case. This notwithstanding, carriers are under enormous pressures to move forward. But these services may not evolve and this will be the greatest challenge which carriers will face," continues Ms. Zweig. For more information regarding The Political Drivers Behind Spectrum Value: The Profit Risks and Implications for Third Generation Wireless (3G) contact Jane Zweig, Executive Vice President, Herschel Shosteck Associates, Ltd. 301 589 2259, email: jzweig@shosteck.com Herschel Shosteck Associates, Ltd, are international wireless analysts known for its strategic wireless seminars, special studies, and its strategic market and competitive analyses. As the Internet and the computing industry begin to affect the wireless industry, the firm has expanded its scope to analyze their impact on traditional wireless businesses.