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Technology Stocks : Network Associates (NET) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ojing Eo who wrote (4930)	4/13/1999 8:25:00 PM
From: P.M.Freedman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6021

Buyers may wait for the estimated numbers for next quarter. NETA may maintain above $12 for a while. A new CFO may have to be picked because the old buy-to-growth means may not work well under IRS' eyes. Software companies are much more difficult to turn around than those hardware companies. It's for sure, NETA won't die. But we may see AXNT to file chapter 11 in two years. The markets kill losers as always.

To: Ojing Eo who wrote (4930)	4/13/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: Just_Observing	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6021

More about Options in General 1. I am not aware of any site that contains historical pricing of options. But using option software, I can calculate any historical option pricing that you would like. And so can you. The key element here is to find the volatility which is related to the Standard Deviation fo the stock. Once you have the volatility defined, the rest is easy. 2. I will take a look at the CPWR options and see if anything interesting shows up. 3. The key with options is not to get too greedy. Otherwise you'll lose. So if you have a chance for a decent profit or spread, take it. The other key is volatility. This parameter changes dramatically with stock moves. Also, this is the parameter that market makers (or others in general) cannot agree on how to define accurately. Sometimes there is a miscalculation in this parameter. That will not happen often with heavily traded options. 4. I have always maintained that the best way to play NETA is with options since your capital is not at risk. At these low levels, the capital risk is reduced dramatically. But I still feel that options are the best play. And not the short term ones because the legal blitz is going to continue and analysts will take some time to forgive management. If the stock falls further, the options will get much cheaper - not only because of the stock price but also because the volatility parameter is smaller. And conversely when the stock rises, you get two effects working for you. 5. An interesting idea is to do a time spread for NETA options. Buy the 2001 Jan 15 calls for 7 3/8 and sell the Jan 2000 Jan 15 calls for 5 1/4. That way you use up the bad news period and get a full years worth of good news for around $2. There are several variants on this idea and I'm sure most of you can find them yourself. Good Luck