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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jaknik2 who wrote (7147)	4/13/1999 9:41:00 PM
From: digger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

I think this post of Carl's edited version of Dave Gardy's April 3rd "Fireside Chat" is worth a reread and a must read for anyone who didn't. #reply-6785 Cheers, digger

To: Jaknik2 who wrote (7147)	4/13/1999 9:47:00 PM
From: Michael Olds	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17679

Technical Indicators and some slapdash analysis for Ampex 4/13/99. I really wish to stress that I think following technical analysis at this point in time would be a mistake. While a very good case can be made by looking at some of this material that a strong sell is due in the morning, it is my opinion that that is just the game here; that unless you are watching in real time, a large correction could occur and be recovered before you could sell and get back in. Nevertheless, if you are operating in a tax free account with commissions like AC, a whole pile of extra could be made if this data is correct. Added after reading the previous few posts: If the Bramson letter comes out before open, all bets are off. All bets are off from the time that letter gets out--are you brave enough to second guess the timing of that? One other point. Only some of the data looks like a sell to me. Other indicators are clearly buys (medium term and longer term I think there is no question that even in TA terms this stock is in a major up trend.) For me, the most outstanding feature of the chart is the fact that the stock closed right bang on the upper band of the medium term (since 12/15/98) standard deviation (i.e. this trend). It went up past it, then settled right on it. Ampex has frequently been seen to hit this mark and act accordingly, as on 1/29. The line has just moved up. Same line further out in time on an up-trend. If the stock settles back to the middle band of this standard deviation, we are looking at a correction to 3.974. When it corrected back from 1/29, it corrected to [1.] 2.688 when the band was at 2.997; and [2] 2.438 when the band was at 3.2. (You figure the percentages. I would say any close below the middle band would be a buy.) Candlestick: First! The specialists, or whoever it is, is able to manipulate the close of Ampex so that Candlesticks especially can go from good to bad based on a single after hours trade of 100 shares as happened on the 8 th and 9 th. That said, today there were two candlestick formations of note: the gap called a rising window, which is bullish, and a long upper shadow (the line above the box from the high to the close) which is bearish, especially at a top. As with the Western “Gap” “Rising Windows” have a predisposition to close at a certain point before the realization of the bullish trend they indicate. The long shadow indicates that the bulls could not hold on to a large part of their gain for the day. The Chaikin Money Flow: While this is still above the 0 line and therefore indicates that the trend is intact, since the large volume day ended closer to the bottom of the range than to the top, the reading is below that of yesterday. My take is that this phase is slowing. My take is that that is reasonable in that this phase is based on “News” and the news has been absorbed. More news, new phase. No news, correction to the median. The very short term standard deviation (starting 2/23) is now clearly in an uptrend. The short term standard deviation (starting 1/28) is now clearly in an uptrend. The medium term standard deviation (starting 12/15) continues to be in an uptrend. MACD No signals generated today. The last signal was a buy 6 periods ago. STOP AND REVERSE. No signals today. The last was a buy 4 periods ago. The current market condition for Ampex is Very Bullish The close is currently above its 200 period moving average The close is currently above its 90 period moving average The close is currently above its 30 period moving average There is additional confirmation from one or more buy signals within the last 10 days. The Stochastic Oscillator is at 76.692. The Stochastic Oscillator is giving a Sell signal TODAY. Relative Strength Index: The current value for the 14 day RSI is 86.2318 This is in topping territory. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A sell signal is generated with the RSI moves out of an overbought area. Chande Momentum Oscillator: 74.6835. Overbought is above 50. Bollinger Bands are 113.54% wider than normal. The probability is, therefore that volatility will decrease and prices consolidate in the near future (given no further stimulus from news which is not likely to be the case). Tushar Chande Chart Checkup: Overall bias is Upwards Short term prices are moving Intermediate term prices are trending Extraordinary price action to the upside Prices vulnerable to a correction towards 3.25 Projected upper bound is 7.13 Projected lower bound is 5.19 Projected closing is 6.16 Rex Takasugi – TD Profile Short term Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish