Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Key West who wrote (57683)	4/13/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 97611

Uriah Heep : In your 'umble opinion, is it true that the Second World War broke out because of Channel Stuffing? And further, is it true that Mr. Pfeifer was reponsible? Did Marine Lieutenant Michael Dell single-handed save the Western World from this scourge? Should Mr. Pfeiffer and his gang now be subject to the War Crimes Tribunal? I need to know for my weekly essay. Thank you. Master Copperfield

To: Key West who wrote (57683)	4/13/1999 11:30:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Respond to of 97611

Gene, Re: Intel's 0.57 dispels all doubts re a PC slowdown this quarter A simple inspection of the INTC report shows that their revenue fell by a percentage amount roughly equal to last year. Where INTC delivered was in the reduced cost of producing those revenues. 7614 2064 7103 1999 It is reasonable to conclude ( based on the similarity to last year) that INTC will deliver at least 58 cents next quarter on revenues that are somewhat above the current revenues. Why? Because of the new product ramp ups and the price reductions just made by INTC. I doubt if the AV spinoff can produce more than 1B in cash for CPQ. So I do not see it helping CPQ very much as this is chicken feed. The striking similarity between revenues this year and last year tends to support the view that the channel stuffing this year is almost as bad as last year. If this is so, CPQ will lose more marketshare in the coming quarter as its channel partners work off its excess inventory. I still think that the stuffing was selective and significant in the enterprise end of the business. The falloff in AMD sales indicates that demand for their low end chips has fallen significantly. Of course, CPQ is the biggest user of those chips. I believe that E-machines is using the Celeron processor and not AMD. Anyway, this scenario would be consistent with building too many Sub-zero machines with AMD processors and intense competition in the retail channel. Further trouble lies ahead for CPQ with its channel partners. Meanwhile, HWP is taking significant chunks of retail channel business away from CPQ and IBM. Perhaps CPQ should do what HWP is doing? DELL is now offering a very attractive $999 dimension system based on the Celeron processor. Thus CPQ is squeezed from above by DELL in the subzero market and from below by E-machines. The same might be said of IBM and HWP. But it looks like DELL will be walking off with the profit in this market. Regards, Jim Kelley