To: ToySoldier who wrote (20493 ) 4/13/1999 11:20:00 PM From: Sir Francis Drake Respond to
Hey, Toy - to a certain degree, I agree that MSFT's weakness is a tech thing. But only partially. I'm afraid - there may be more to it. I know I'll get flayed alive here by the faithfull MSFT bulls, but I suspect that MSFT is simply in a pause - there are no real reasons why MSFT should zoom. Anybody who wanted to own MSFT, pretty much owns it. And what reason to buy more? I don't see anything on the horizon that would so dramatically increase MSFT's revenue and profits that it would materially affect MSFT's valuation. Remember, once you get to the size of MSFT, you need truly HUGE increases of revenue (in absolute terms) to keep up the momentum. A 50 milllion increase for a fairly large tech company is very significant - for MSFT, that's relative peanuts. Everyone talks of Windows 2000 and Office, but to what degree is that replacement revenue, and what is over and above growth? And to what degree has that been already factored into the price? Look, I'm a MSFT bull, but frankly, at this point I'm simply sitting on my LONG term MSFT that I've held for years. I'm not adding - I think there are stocks out there where the growth is going to be far greater. It may even be - dare I say this... that most of MSFT's appreciation for 99 has already occured. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but at this point, my extra cash is going into other stocks. Of course, it goes without saying, that I'm NOT selling my long-term MSFT.
