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To: Bill F. who wrote (33268)	4/13/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Bill, You didn't listen to my Dan "Midnight Phone Call" Niles indicator. -g- I kept a pretty fair sized April bets in place based on that.

To: Bill F. who wrote (33268)	4/14/1999 5:24:00 AM
From: accountclosed	Respond to of 86076

cross your fingers for april 52.5's today ;-)

To: Bill F. who wrote (33268)	4/14/1999 12:21:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 86076

The leading authority on world financial crises, Prof. Kindleberger... Bill, we were talking about him and his book a month or 2 ago Date: 12-04-1999 :: Pg: 20 :: Col: c The leading authority on world financial crises, Prof. Charles P. Kindleberger, feels that an attempt to reshape the international financial system all at once is doomed to failure. ''I think it would be a disaster to have a new Bretton Woods now, there isn't enough agreement on which way to go,'' he said in an interview with N. Ravi. On the other hand, the way to go about setting things right is to deal individually with specific problems and issues that may need solving immediately. Dr. Kindleberger, who is Emeritus Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has analysed financial crises beginning with the Seventeenth Century. Of his classic work, the Nobel Laureate, Prof. Paul Samuelson, said, ''Sometime in the next five years you may kick yourself for not reading and re-reading Kindleberger's Manias, Panics and Crashes." It has also been described as ''a template against which to measure the latest financial crisis - whatever and whenever that happens to be.'' The following are excerpts from the interview: On the nature of the East Asian crisis It is because of the herd behaviour. There was a great deal of attention in the markets, particularly in Europe, and also in the United States to East Asia - they noticed that they were growing at a rapid rate of 5, 6, 7 or 9 per cent, so they started to lend, that built up and got to be herd behaviour. Very few of them seemed to back off and say stop. We know that there was a little boomlet in 1993-94 which was stopped by the interest rate - the Federal Reserve in those days raised interest rates three times in the spring. Last fall, they lowered it three times. It seems funny, I guess it is symmetrical, they had a slight crash when a hedge fund collapsed in 1994 as well as when the Long Term Capital Management got into trouble in 1998. I don't say it is always herd behaviour operating, but occasionally. And the herd behaviour is a response to a displacement of some kind - war, peace, higher interest rates, lower interest rates. The quotation from John Stuart Mill, that John Bull can stand anything but he cannot stand 2 per cent is of some interest. I have noticed that many times when governments tried to refund high interest debt after a war, that started booms. That is because investors had to keep their income up. If the British debt which was funded during the Napoleonic war was refunded to 3 per cent in 1822, that meant people started looking around for other things. They lent to Latin America, you had a boom in Latin America which went too far and herds developed. Some economists have said policy switching was a displacement. That would be true, of course, when old bonds are refunded or when the government moved in and tried to slow down or speed up the economy. On the limits of central bank intervention webpage.com:80/hindu/daily/990412/06/06120007.htm