To: Eggolas Moria who wrote (117269 ) 4/14/1999 12:40:00 AM From: Eggolas Moria Respond to of 176387
So are there broader industry problems that led to Compaq's woes? And will they find their way into other earnings reports? Opinions are mixed. BancBoston Robertson Stephens analyst Dan Niles downgraded Hewlett-Packard (HWP) and Intel (INTC) Monday, and Salomon Smith Barney's Richard Gardner downgraded Gateway. Adds Roger Kay of International Data Corp., "Compaq usually manages to infect Dell and H-P." But Dell said on Thursday that it expects to gain share this quarter and Kay's H-P sources insist that everything is humming along in Palo Alto. ABN Amro's Wu also expects no surprises from Intel's earnings release Tuesday afternoon. Still, Kay suspects that Intel's midquarter release of the Pentium III chip did cause some industrywide selling woes, as customers waited for new models or price drops on Pentium IIs. And sub-$1,000 PCs continue to feed the desire for cheaper and cheaper boxes. "[Average selling prices] continue to crash and revenues could be in some serious trouble," says Kay. CEO Eckhard Pfeiffer insisted Monday morning that there's little wrong otherwise. He says Compaq is having no trouble integrating the acquired assets of Digital Equipment, and he denies any renewed inventory problems. He also says that despite sentiment to the contrary, the company's efforts to mix direct sales with indirect sales is not angering the company's channel partners. Pfeiffer wasn't finding many believers on Monday, but we found one. At 24, says Lawrence York, manager of the WWW Internet (WWIFX) fund, Compaq is "a screaming buy." Last June, Compaq was over 4% of York's portfolio, but he has since reduced his weighting to 1.5% by not adding to his holding as the fund's assets grew. Now he sees a rare chance to buy the No. 1 PC maker, warts and all. "Compaq is a great company," he asserts. Of course, Internet fund managers view risk through a different set of lenses. From much of Wall Street, Compaq looks like dead money for now. smartmoney.com