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Biotech / Medical : SUNPHARM Pharmaceuticals (SUNP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMarcus who wrote (39)	4/14/1999 4:47:00 PM
From: Graham Marshman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52

It sure is. I've just been doing my usual ritual of trying to build a valuation model - I've got some wild guesses emailed to Paul H for his comment. Primarily trying to quantify total market size for DENSPM for the 6 solid tumor targets and also for DEHOP for the AIDs related case. Gets hard to keep the numbers down to something reasonable: 6.4M new cases of AIDS each year globally. (ignore backlog) 3.2M addressable by DEHOP (based on 50%-80% number - ignore HIV+) So how much would they make per patient - $5000? That would make DEHOP a $15B annual market. As the only player, their market share would also climb fairly fast. I estimate a market cap contribution, at phase II, of 40% of estimated first year share - gets interesting. DENSPM ain't shabby either. Any thoughts? Graham