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To: bill meehan who wrote (33520)4/14/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 86076
 
Bill:
INTC is down $2.75 last I looked. At $57- $58 I'm quite content. I mentioned last night that I thought the big funds would do their normal thing and contribute some bucks to the opening this morning to dissipate some of the sting from last night's less-than-comforting news, and that appears to be what occurred.

The numbers were pretty much what I expected. They missed the revenues quite consequentially. The miss was even nastier if one factors out the acquisitions. They also "stretched" for the bottom line with plenty of accounting effort and still came up with a number that didn't get anybody excited. The company also sold off some of their holdings (don't blame them), which apparently helped the result, but haven't enough info to really nail it down. Can't wait to get into the 10-Q on this one, as I think we may find some things of interest. (g)

The reality is fully visible in the field. INTC has a bunch of problems, not the least of which is the fact that their big buck advertising campaign for P3 was a waste. P3 sales are a joke. The company's business model (move everybody up-market by reducing bottom end supply) is finished. Cannibalizing top end product is a short term end to a long term headache. Also, there is a bag full of inventory out there which is not moving well at all.

The big surprise for me was that the margins held up better than I expected. While it was claimed that much of this derived from production improvements and cost containment, this is simply not true. Yield is the big force in this, and there wasn't enough of this to account for the margin surprise. Employment numbers provided no surprises either. Increased inventories (on reduced revenues), don't look all that nice stacked up against lower micro shipments, lower motherboard shipments, etc. The devil is in the details, and we are looking forward to some fun as more info becomes available. I loved the "selected" cash items provided. (g)

From my perspective, we're off to a nice start. I would expect the selling to continue.

Tongue still intact. (g)

Best, Earlie