To: GalSal who wrote (10633 ) 4/15/1999 7:36:00 AM From: MoonBrother Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
ING Analyst's Positive Comment This Morning. Enjoy! ------------------------------------------------- 06:22am EDT 15-Apr-99 ING Baring Furman Selz LLC (Frederick W. Moran (212) 30 AOL: AOL-Branded Membership Surpasses 17 Million INTERNET & ONLINE SERVICES America Online, Inc. (NYSE: AOL-150) AOL-Branded Membership Surpasses 17 Million Frederick W. Moran (212) 309-8990 David S. Levy (212) 309- 8371 April 15, 1999 Jeffrey C. Cino (212) 309- 8901 STRONG BUY 52-Week Range: 176-17 EARNINGS PER SHARE Daily Vol(000s): 30,000 1998 1999E 2000E 2001E Diluted Shares O/S (mil.): 1058 Sep $0.02 $0.07A $0.10 $0.18 Market Cap(mil): $159,626 Dec $0.02 $0.08A $0.12 $0.19 Floating Market Cap. (mil.): $151,644 Mar $0.04 $0.10 $0.15 $0.21 Net Cash/(Debt) (mil): 1,600 Jun $0.06 $0.11 $0.17 $0.22 Revenue Growth Rate: 40% Fis EPS $0.14 $0.36 $0.54 $0.80 LT Debt/Capital 25% P/E (Fis) NM NM 277.8 x 187.5 x Book Value/Share: $0.58 Revenue $2,600 $4,153 $6,015 $7,620 Insider Holdings: 5% Multiple 61.2 x 38.3 x 26.5 x 20.9 x S & P 500: 1328.46 Note: Numbers may not add because of rounding. EPS figures reflect recurring earnings. * Yesterday, America Online, Inc. announced that it had signed up more than 17 million AOL-branded subscribers worldwide as of early April. * The company has added roughly 5 million subscribers since April 1998, representing 42% annual growth, with 2 million of these subscribers added over the last three months alone. * As a result of yesterday's announcement, we believe that AOL met our fiscal third-quarter (March) estimate of 16.9 million AOL-branded subscribers. * Including CompuServe customers, we expect total company subscribership of 18.9 million for the third fiscal quarter. * Our rating remains Strong Buy. Key usage metrics, calculated on a daily basis, demonstrate strong year-over- year growth as well. Subscribers to the AOL dialup service currently average 55 minutes of daily online usage, an increase of ten minutes versus 45 minutes a year ago. Simultaneous dialup users increased 63%, to 1.1 million, during peak hours, doubling the prime time cable television audiences of CNBC and CNN. E-mails sent doubled year-over-year, to 56 million from 28 million per day, and instant messages more than doubled, to 432 million from 200 million. Stock quotes increased 61%, to 121 million from 75 million and Web URLs served more than tripled, to 2.6 billion from 800 million. Fiscal Third-Quarter and Annual Expectations Our fiscal third-quarter 1999 total subscriber estimate stands at approximately 18.9 million (with estimated total net subscriber additions of 1.8 million), which should drive total revenue of $1.05 billion. We expect third-quarter fully diluted EPS of $0.10 on a recurring basis, up from $0.08 previously. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 1999, we believe AOL could reach 20 million total subscribers (representing 37% year-over-year growth), driving total revenue of $4.15 billion and fully diluted, recurring EPS of $0.36. Description America Online, Inc. stands as the world's largest Internet and online service provider, boasting the most powerful brand name in cyberspace. Since its inception in 1985, the company has captured tremendous growth, reaching 17 million AOL Interactive Service members around the world in early April 1999.
Including 2 million CompuServe customers, AOL currently has more than 19 million total customers. Conclusion We believe that member growth is accelerating and that AOL could reach 20 million total members by fiscal yearend, June 1999. The company continues to enhance its branding through promotion of its core AOL brand as well as through the development and acquisition of other Internet brands such as Digital City, CompuServe, ICQ and most recently Netscape. We believe that AOL is poised to become a leading entertainment provider for the third millennium. Our rating remains Strong Buy.