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To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (933)4/14/1999 5:27:00 PM
From: Richard Forsythe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 990
 
No, actually my theory is different. My theory is that IBM wines and dines analysts, provides them with confidential briefings, has frequent analyst briefing sessions and generally gives them access to all sorts of confidential information.

On the other hand, Intel disdains such anti-small-investor behavior and instead will tell everyone, at the same time, about an earnings short fall through a press release after the market closes. Analysts protect their own...

Look on the bright side, continued buying opportunities in an otherwise overvalued market.

Richard



To: Jules B. Garfunkel who wrote (933)4/14/1999 7:18:00 PM
From: Harry Landsiedel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 990
 
Jules B. Garfunkel. Re: "Where is the rationality?" Of course, we know the answer to that one. There is limited rationality in the market in the short run.

I always remind myself of Benjamin Graham's dictum: "In the short run the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it's a weighing machine." In the case of IBM, it's the money flow and an easy to understand "story": moving to services away from hardware and e-commerce.

Intel's drop doesn't bother me. I'm not planning to sell for a long time. I like it when a stock's forward P/E stays close to it's growth rate. When the PE/Growth rate gets to be 1.5 or higher I get nervous.

My real concern is that prices cannot forever outrun earnings and when the correction comes it could be very nasty and brutish and not necessarily short. Intel will be taken down in that kind of downdraft too, even though it's not deserved. I have not figured out what to do. Any suggestions?

HL