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Biotech / Medical : Gliatech (GLIA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dalroi who wrote (714)	4/14/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2001

Stefaan: >> could you say this one is a buy now ? << I'm not qualified to make recommendations, and I'm certainly no expert in neurology (although I'm getting better all the time, the hard way). I therefore don't say "buy" or "sell". I once labeled GLIA the best bargain in biotech, however, at about $8/share. I still feel that it's one of the best bargains. A value for Spyros for the H3-receptor program? Sure..... someplace between $10 million (assumes that GT 2331 fails in multiple-dose phase I, that other antagonists just won't work, and that we're left with preclinical work on agonists) and $10 billion. A present value for Spyros? Arrghhhh...... $60 million. If GT 2331 clears phase I, I'll say $80 million. If it looks good for multiple indications after phase I, I'll say $100 million. If it looks good for multiple indications after phase II and a license is obtained allowing for comarketing and/or a restricted geography, $300 million. Then, of course, it would get fun. So..... $60 million, but with the potential to go up fast. In the old days, investors paid for that potential. Today, they have internet banks. My crystal ball has 1999 prices for GLIA projects, given that they turned a profit last quarter and that investors will therefore pay a bit for a pipeline. For a program with the same potential in a "true" third tier (no product sales in sight), 1999 prices are somewhere in the neighborhood of $0. Be sure to relate that happy fact to Spyros. ;-( in the beginning buy before earnings (when this stock loses money) now sell before earning (it makes money) I've been trying to figure that one out. This may offend some people..... sorry, I honestly love my friends from Ohio. However, while Cleveland investors were a huge help on the upside, I don't think that it helps now to have non-biotech vets in this stock. I feel that the shareholders here abandon the issue to readily and in the face of fearmongers without data. until today i didnt do a redo but im only using it for 3-4 months Good news! Please keep us informed of how it looks given a longer period. SO WHY -30 % I just don't know. You can read my best guess above..... "fickle fans". Cheers! Rick