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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rui Zhang who wrote (11026)	4/14/1999 5:32:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Rui, meyer is a bit overzealous here. it is obvious to everybody else that the NAIRU is a thing of the past, as inflation is absolutely nowhere to be seen. in fact, to everyone's vast surprise it doesn't even show up in wages. and while rates look pretty low in absolute numbers, policy is in fact tight when measured in real numbers. japan,china and germany are experiencing deflation. if the fed were to tighten now, the slight recovery seen in some south-east asian nations would be aborted at a stroke. stock markets around the globe would crash and a 1930's style depression could eventually follow. i don't think AG is going to take that risk. meyer's comments may just be an attempt to talk the stock market down. once a recovery in asia is well underway, a rate hike may be quite possible, providing the u.s. economy stays as strong as it is now. judging from the economic data published by various asian countries, it will still take a while. rate hike? perish the thought. regards, hb