To: Venditâ„¢ who wrote (10681 ) 4/15/1999 1:44:00 AM From: Tunica Albuginea Respond to of 41369
Vendit,Re:" What will happen to AOL if....?" Good question. I don't know, < GG >, is my honest answer, <GG>, but in this crazy market ( as you suggested ) you got to be ready for everything. So I always have one foot out the door. So this am when Dan Niles from ?Roberston came on CNBC and started badmouthing INTC and the PC market( " you don't need a 500 PIII to surf the web, and , people want only to surf the web now " )AOL turned from 163 to 160, Dell started suddenly to deflate, YHOO and CMGI went south, I decided to bail out at 159.It was Caterpillar's GM's, etc, day today. Some people call these " late economic cycle blooms ". Are we at the end of this bull market? Yes for most stocks; has been for several months. How long will the lonely leaders ( big caps, IBM, Lu, )last? Hard to say but the leaders are all being taken out one at a time ( Gillette, Coke, Dell, INTC, CPQ, Mot,etc) The next question then is when will the remaining leaders, the Internuts, go? And in particular for us AOL? Again I don't know, but this is what I think: The economic marketplace is now shifting into cyberspace. Cyberspace is limited by the desktop, in a way, and in particular by the no of people hitting a website/portal. At this point, AOL is the front big gorilla ( with SUNW/NSCP )and historically we know that these Gorillas take giant leaps upwards even during bear markets. The classic example is CSCO which during the 1992 bear market took off and never looked back again. I think that AOL is the new CSCO of cyberspace and so I decided to stay close to this pony even though I may dismount from time to time ( this activity is also known as bronco-acrobatics and can be very dangerous,< GG > , but heck we only go through here once right? So might as well make it interesting. So after dismounting from AOL we need to decide when to go back on. Hard to say. So I decided to go in, in gradual steps: Got back in 20% at 151 at 1547. We'll call the next jump on a minute to minute basis, whether AOL goes up or down,..........as the world turns...; I mean as the ticker tape unfolds... with a fingertip firmly posted to the wind..... for precise guidance, :-) :-) :-) TA