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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (57937)	4/14/1999 7:55:00 PM
From: Steven N	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

He had his chance today. He looked haggared.The only way this company can cope is when Merced is delayed by one year..... sn {no disrespect intended rudedog, but you knew this last year} sn

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (57937)	4/14/1999 8:49:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 97611

El: I didn't say he wasn't right. I'm just making the point that some people make repeated posting to the effect that bad things are going to happen - in Steven he was "predicting" it. I was just pointing out that the logic of that position is to sell and buy again - after all the very highest "teens" is 19 and thats a 20% difference from where we are now. I said after the warning last week that I could see Innovate providing a floor for a couple of days but I would be concerned about Friday and maybe Tuesday. Despite that silly expression to the effect that the market is always right, all news is priced in etc etc, the fact is that the market is always wrong. So there is nothing to stop it going lower. Logic says the it is lower now than it should be on what we know or are likely to know at earnings. But if the whole market tanks people tend to dump the losers. I may be an optimist but I sold 40% of my COMPAQ position three days before the warning (a) because other buys had put me into margin and (b) because I wanted to buy COMPAQ $2 or more lower. I put a buy order in on Friday morning for $29 1/4 and then raised it to $29 3/4. Luckily it never filled. I will and have sell all my COMPAQ to get it lower and would do it again. Steven's prediction and others like it don't give me enough evidence - or any evidence.

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (57937)	4/15/1999 12:01:00 AM
From: Roger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Elwood - I agree with you re: potential downside to CPQ. I think this company has to do something truly miraculous to escape being thrashed by Wall St for the surprise it sprung on them. For now, I think they are just holding this thing to near 25 just for options expiration. COme next week, I dont know what happens - maybe new lows to hi teens as you have indicated. My sense tells me watch out below. Wall St just punishes companies who have a credibility problem - remember Cendant. Poor Henry Silverman was ruing the day he made the acquistion of CUC. Prior to this, HFS was a great stock - it has been a long and slow process to again get Wall St to trust you. Having said all this - the market has a way of truly springing a surprise on you. Miracles do happen. Next week will be interesting for this stock.