NATO Presses Russia on Another Front
Summary:
NATO's campaign in Yugoslavia, waged against the fervent
objections of Moscow, has once again driven Russia and NATO into
opposing camps. NATO has also been pursuing relationships in the
Caucasus and Central Asia, and surprisingly is continuing to
actively do so even as it is attempting to stabilize relations
with Russia over Kosovo.
Analysis:
Russia's Interfax news agency has cited Azerbaijani presidential
administration sources as saying that Azerbaijani President
Haidar Aliyev received personal messages on April 14 from U.S.
President Bill Clinton and U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright. According to Interfax, the message from Clinton
"contains a proposal on settling the Karabakh conflict," while
Albright invited Aliyev to attend NATO's anniversary celebration
later in April. Azerbaijan has been eagerly pursuing a
relationship with -- if not membership in -- NATO, a campaign
matched by the growing strategic alliance between Russia and
Armenia. But while this strategic positioning is well underway,
it is surprising that Clinton and Albright would personally fuel
this standoff just now. Relations between NATO and Russia have
been shattered by the Kosovo crisis, and efforts to mend those
relations and find a solution to the crisis can only be hurt by
increasing tension in the Caucasus.
We have thoroughly reported and analyzed the collapse of Russia's
relations with NATO over the conflict in Kosovo on our Kosovo in
Crisis web site (http://www.stratfor.com/kosovo/crisis/). Russia
was not only infuriated when NATO ignored its objections prior to
launching air strikes on Yugoslavia, but has come to view NATO's
actions as a direct challenge to Russian national interests and
security. The Russian journal Segodnya on April 10 described
NATO as destroying the last outpost of Russian influence in
Europe. But NATO's campaign against Russia does not stop in
Yugoslavia, Segodnya argued, "Georgia and Azerbaijan do not want
a Russian military presence anymore and are the most "advanced"
countries in this respect, as far as the United States is
concerned."
Azerbaijani officials had already announced on April 7 Aliyev's
intention to attend NATO's 50th anniversary ceremonies. The
officials told the newspaper Bilik Dunyasi that Aliyev was also
expected while in the United States to hold talks with U.S.
leaders on expanding bilateral cooperation. Georgian President
Eduard Shevardnadze has also announced his intention to attend
NATO's anniversary ceremonies.
Azerbaijan and Georgia, along with Uzbekistan, opted out of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Collective Security
Treaty earlier this month. Additionally, both Azerbaijan and
Georgia refused to sign a CIS statement condemning NATO air
strikes in Yugoslavia. In fact, Azerbaijani political parties,
both in the opposition and the ruling coalition, have come out
publicly in favor of NATO air strikes. Azerbaijan has even
announced its intention to send 50 soldiers as part of a Turkish
unit to participate in NATO peacekeeping operations in Bosnia, or
perhaps in Kosovo once a settlement is reached.
Whether proactive or reactive, Azerbaijan has appealed for closer
relations with NATO to counterbalance Russian relations with
Armenia. Azerbaijan and Armenia are currently in shaky truce
over the predominantly Armenian enclave of Nagorno Karabakh in
Azerbaijan. While Russia has denied it is supplying arms
directly to Armenia -- since arming combatants in an intra-CIS
feud is forbidden -- it has deployed advanced S-300 surface to
air missiles and MiG-29 fighters to Russian units in Armenia.
Speaking in Armenia on April 13, Russian air force commander
Colonel General Anatoly Kornukov announced that Armenia's air
defense system and Russia's air force are "ready to embark on
joint combat duty." For its part, Georgia has requested the
departure of Russian army units guaranteeing a truce between
Georgia and the breakaway region of Abkhazia. Georgia accuses
Russia of siding with the Abkhaz separatists.
On March 19, Azerbaijan detained a Russian cargo plane carrying
MiG fighters Baku claimed were bound for Yugoslavia. The Russian
newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta interpreted this as little more
than a show of loyalty to NATO. On March 20, Aliyev questioned
Russian President Boris Yeltsin about Russian missile and jet
shipments to Armenia. On March 23, a U.S. delegation led by Air
Force Major General Charles Wax reportedly visited Azerbaijan,
where they held talks with Azerbaijani Defense and Foreign
Ministry officials and toured the Nasosnaya Air Base, which
Azerbaijan has offered to the U.S., Turkey, and NATO.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta argued that the tour of the air base by U.S.
military planners indicated that the plan to establish a NATO
base in Azerbaijan was "practically decided."
Demonstrating the inseparability of economics and politico-
military strategy in the region, contracts worth $2 billion
between Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR, Exxon, and Mobil
for Caspian oilfield development are scheduled to be signed
during Aliyev's visit to the U.S. Additionally, Turkey and the
Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), the
international consortium developing Azerbaijan's Caspian oil
resources, are reportedly nearing agreement on the construction
of a pipeline from Baku to Ceyhan Turkey. The AIOC had shied
away from the pipeline route -- backed by Washington since it
avoids both Russia and Iran -- due to its high cost. But Richard
Morningstar, the U.S. special envoy for Caspian energy, has
announced that, "We're getting closer in bridging commercial and
political realities." NATO even recently hosted a conference on
Caspian ecology in Venice, and the Azerbaijani press suggested
that NATO might finance a program to defend the Caspian ecology.
Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Ukraine, who signed a defense protocol
on March 18, will reportedly hold military exercises on April 16
in Georgia. The exercises will take place under the auspices of
NATO's Partnership for Peace program, and will involve preparing
for possible emergencies along the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline.
Finally, if NATO entanglements and competition over Caspian oil
was not enough, Russia must now be concerned about a possible
Azerbaijan-Chechnya connection. ITAR-TASS reported on April 13
that a train car load of military uniforms bound for Chechnya
from Lithuania via Azerbaijan had been stopped by authorities at
the Dagestan border. As Russia traces the sources and
facilitators of this shipment, it will certainly increase tension
in the Caucasus.
Russia has voiced its displeasure at growing NATO influence in
the Caucasus. In a direct reference to the Kosovo crisis and a
veiled allusion to Azerbaijan's relations with NATO, Russian
Ambassador to Azerbaijan Aleksandr Blokhin warned on April 5
that, "If NATO is not taking into account Russia, which has 2,500
nuclear warheads and fairly serious armed forces, then the
bombings will create a dangerous precedent of permissiveness in
relation to other, especially smaller countries. Those who seek
to engage with NATO today must understand this." "Azerbaijan's
cooperation with NATO, especially in light of events in
Yugoslavia, negatively affects Russian-Azeri relations," he
added.
Armenia has declared the deployment of Turkish or other NATO
forces to Azerbaijan "impossible." Regarding Armenia's relations
with Russia, Armenian Defense Minister Vazgan Sarkasian said
April 6 that, "The CIS, in particular Russia, have started taking
the CIS Collective Security Treaty... more seriously. Up til
now, they have been complaining only about NATO reinforcing its
positions near the CIS and Russian border. Now it seems as
though they have decided to talk less and do more, that is to
say, to reinforce their positions."
Russia continues to build up forces in Armenia. It has also
launched naval exercises in the Caspian, which Baku has
interpreted as being directed at Azerbaijan, though Azerbaijani
Foreign Policy Advisor Vafa Guluzade has said that "the pressure
was not so great that we had to go down on bended knees or change
our policy."
Washington and NATO are playing the great game in the Caucasus
and Central Asia, without a doubt. They are also feuding with
Russia over the situation in Yugoslavia. The wider game is only
beginning, but at present NATO is attempting to win Moscow over
to a peace initiative in Yugoslavia. It is therefore striking
that Washington would choose to increase tension in the Caucasus
at the same time it is trying to decrease it in Europe.
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