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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jan m. who wrote (33948)	4/14/1999 10:16:00 PM
From: kha vu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

Net stocks.... another point of view: TAUB TALK: Expect a 20%-40% Internet Correction April 14, 1999 Steve Taub Internet investors, consider yourselves warned. Once the quarterly earnings reporting season winds down at the end of this month, internet stocks will probably correct by at least 20% to 40% over the next few months. Says who? None other than Keith Benjamin, the hotshot Internet analyst for BancBoston Robertson Stephens. That's right. Speaking at a Tuesday morning internet conference sponsored by Multex.com, Benjamin said he expects internet stocks as a group to begin declining beginning around the end of April or beginning of May when we run out of companies reporting quarterly earnings. Why then? 'Then there will be a dearth of (good) news,' he says. The only thing to tide investors over will be the IPOs. But, they're no longer doing the trick. Benjamin notes that due to the plethora of new issues, the stocks are suffering from a case of 'New Girl in High School' syndrome. (He then added new boy for political correctness reasons.) 'So you forget the old girl,' he says. In other words, several days after a net stock goes public, it seems to sink from its initial meteoric rise. Two recent cases in point: Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN) and Value America (NASDAQ: VUSA). For example, Priceline.com closed at $69 on its first day of trading at the end of March and then raced up to $92. It's now trading around $79. Value America, the web retailer which went public last Thursday, is currently quoted at $51.75 after trading as high as $74.25. But, don't get out of the net stocks just yet. They can still enjoy another nice pop as more companies report strong quarterly results. In fact, when ETrade (NASDAQ: EGRP) reports on Thursday, Benjamin expects a 'Blowout Quarter.' His words. 'They're having a phenomenal quarter,' he adds. In fact, ETrade is now at a crossroads in its development and must decide what form of ownership it prefers in the future. 'It's a question of who they buy or who buys them,' Benjamin insists. Benjamin, however, bets that ETrade will choose to sell to a larger partner. And who will buy ETrade? 'If I had to guess, Goldman Sachs would have to buy them,' he insists. Is this really possible? 'Yes.' First, Goldman must complete a successful IPO. Then it will have a valuable currency to use to buy E*Trade, Benjamin explains. On the other hand, Benjamin didn't exactly endorse the prospects of several online retailers. In fact, he referred to Buy.com, which is private, and Onsale (NASDAQ: ONSL) as having 'hopeless business models.' Why? 'They buy and sell goods at cost. Then rely on ads' to make money. However, in his estimation, Onsale has underestimated the importance and value in investing in strong fulfillment operations (taking, processing and shipping an order) and customer service. 'They need to take care of the back-end-customer service,' he adds. Would Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) apply too? 'No,' he insists. 'They're spending on fulfillment.' Yikes!

To: jan m. who wrote (33948)	4/14/1999 11:34:00 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

My epiphany came on Monday morning when I was holding 800 shares of NTBK on when the S&P Futures were down over 19 points. That for me was the jolt I needed to get me to sell .. Had NTBK gone down 70 points then I would have felt it. It didn't happen and that day I sold 80%.. Then came Tuesday and the split was announced okay I had more NTBK and made some money. Came this morning I was left with only 200 NTBK and more than an uneasy feeling since I was up all night, I sold NTBK bought CYCH but felt uncomfortable with the nets. I got into the earnings plays all this before 10;30 even got back out of CYCH within 45 minutes, out of USWB with 2 points down instead of the 8 by days end. I am always suspicious that it will end so I'm always ready to pull the 'sell' trigger. Also I don't get on the newer nets as quickly as some traders do. I never buy anyone's recommendation until I've charted and checked them myself which by then the stock has gone up and promptly tanked anyhow. I tend to stick with some core 'nets for weeks and get to know their price patterns. I posted them yesterday, about 1 dozen nets and I don't climb on the 'net stock of the hour' or the IPO of the hour. So by the time I sell, I'm satiated. I dumped NITE,SDLI,SONE, DRIV, BVSN all before today.. even though I still had 4 'nets with about 24 aggregate points of loss (on paper) on 200 shares, not too bad at all since those gave me profits of 2-5 times that on 800 shares on those 4 and another 8 positions this month (which I sold completely).